Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JXSTTeam statsMTSU
- Q4 4:29JXSTCam Cook 3 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)24–21
- Q4 7:45MTSUJekail Middlebrook 6 Yd Run (Jacob Hathaway Kick)17–21
- Q4 10:06JXSTDeondre Johnson 30 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)17–14
- Q4 13:29JXSTGarrison Rippa 47 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q3 5:32MTSUJekail Middlebrook 2 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Nicholas Vattiato Pass to Hunter Tipton for Two-Point Conversion)7–14
- Q2 7:25JXSTDeondre Johnson 56 Yd pass from Gavin Wimsatt (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–6
- Q1 4:05MTSUDJ Taylor 10 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–6
How the model called it
- PassCaden Creel 13/19, 139 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCam Cook 21 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeondre Johnson 4 REC, 131 YDS, 2 TD
- PassNicholas Vattiato 23/45, 235 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJekail Middlebrook 10 CAR, 20 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJekail Middlebrook 6 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMTSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 10:06JXST +33%
Deondre Johnson 30 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)
- Q4 11:45MTSU +31%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush left for 7 yards gain to the JSU34 (#7 B.Harris)
- Q3 8:35MTSU +31%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 N.Vattiato pass complete short left to #1 N.Cox caught at JSU20, for 0 yards to the JSU19 (#21 M.Butler; #22 J.Jenkins)
- Q2 7:25JXST +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 G.Wimsatt pass complete deep right to #11 D.Johnson caught at MTSU25, for 56 yards to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 13:29JXST +16%
#37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD
- Q4 11:53MTSU +16%
#32 A.Logan punt 43 yards to the JSU27
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee?
Jacksonville State 24, Middle Tennessee 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
| JXST | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 356 | Total yards | 319 |
| 215 | Passing yards | 235 |
| 141 | Rushing yards | 84 |
| 17 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 15/21 | Comp/Att | 23/45 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-25 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 33:00 | Possession | 27:00 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:17 MTSU punt on 4th & 1 at MTSU 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:29JXSTCam Cook 3 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)24–21
- Q4 7:45MTSUJekail Middlebrook 6 Yd Run (Jacob Hathaway Kick)17–21
- Q4 10:06JXSTDeondre Johnson 30 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)17–14
- Q4 13:29JXSTGarrison Rippa 47 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q3 5:32MTSUJekail Middlebrook 2 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Nicholas Vattiato Pass to Hunter Tipton for Two-Point Conversion)7–14
- Q2 7:25JXSTDeondre Johnson 56 Yd pass from Gavin Wimsatt (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–6
- Q1 4:05MTSUDJ Taylor 10 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MTSU Elo 1184, JXST Elo 1540 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU +11.8 (23% to win) — 7.3 points clear of JXST's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JXST | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.7 (#99) | CORE overall | -15.9 (#113) |
| -4 / +7 | offense / defense | -5 / +11 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.66 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -12 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →