Jacksonville State
4-3·Conference USA· Elo 1540
24–21
Final
Middle Tennessee
1-6·Conference USA· Elo 1184
Johnny "Red" Floyd StadiumConference gameClosing line: JXST +-4.5 · MTSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JXST | 0 | 7 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| MTSU | 6 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 21 |
Team stats
JXSTthis game · better side highlightedMTSU
358
Total yards
319215
Passing yards
235143
Rushing yards
8417
First downs
188-18 · 44%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MTSU 1184
JXST 1540
Projected spread
MTSU +11.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
JXST
81% to win
Market spread
MTSU +4.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
JXST
7.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
19%
MTSU · market 35%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MTSU Elo 1184, JXST Elo 1540) plus home-field advantage. That projects MTSU +11.8 (19% to win) — 7.3 points of value on JXST versus the market line of +4.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MTSU (top)JXST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MTSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- JXST pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. MTSU pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MTSU.
- JXST rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. MTSU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge JXST.
- MTSU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. JXST rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge JXST.
Drive-by-drive
JXST 2/9 scoring drives← own end zone →MTSU 2/9 scoring drives
MTSUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
JXSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
MTSUPUNT8 pl, 20 yds· own 31Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MTSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
MTSU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee?
Jacksonville State 24, Middle Tennessee 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.