Indiana vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IUTeam statsMD
- Q4 3:08IUKhobie Martin 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)55–10
- Q4 11:22IUJonathan Brady 6 Yd pass from Alberto Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)48–10
- Q3 7:37IURoman Hemby 16 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)41–10
- Q3 8:41IUDevan Boykin 32 Yd Fumble Return (Nico Radicic Kick)34–10
- Q3 9:43IUKaelon Black 31 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)27–10
- Q3 12:54MDDeJuan Williams 55 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)20–10
- Q2 0:40IUNico Radicic 46 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 4:53IUOmar Cooper Jr. 22 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)17–3
- Q2 10:30IUNico Radicic 20 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 2:11IUFernando Mendoza 7 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)7–3
- Q1 12:01MDSean O'Haire 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MD lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 28% success rate
- PassFernando Mendoza 14/21, 201 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKaelon Black 14 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- RecOmar Cooper Jr. 7 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMalik Washington 16/31, 242 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushIverson Howard 4 CAR, 12 YDS
- RecDeJuan Williams 4 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIU up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:11IU +11%
Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UMD00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 12:01MD +5%
#36 S.O'Haire field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Indiana vs. Maryland?
Indiana 55, Maryland 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
| IU | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 588 | Total yards | 293 |
| 221 | Passing yards | 256 |
| 367 | Rushing yards | 37 |
| 28 | First downs | 11 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 16/23 | Comp/Att | 18/33 |
| 9.6 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 7.1 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 40:22 | Possession | 19:38 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:30 IU field goal on 4th & 1 at MD 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.78 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:08IUKhobie Martin 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)55–10
- Q4 11:22IUJonathan Brady 6 Yd pass from Alberto Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)48–10
- Q3 7:37IURoman Hemby 16 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)41–10
- Q3 8:41IUDevan Boykin 32 Yd Fumble Return (Nico Radicic Kick)34–10
- Q3 9:43IUKaelon Black 31 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)27–10
- Q3 12:54MDDeJuan Williams 55 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)20–10
- Q2 0:40IUNico Radicic 46 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 4:53IUOmar Cooper Jr. 22 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)17–3
- Q2 10:30IUNico Radicic 20 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 2:11IUFernando Mendoza 7 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)7–3
- Q1 12:01MDSean O'Haire 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1573, IU Elo 2091 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD +18.3 (13% to win) — 2.7 points clear of MD's market line of +21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesIndiana leads 9–5 · Indiana has won 2 straight · 57% have been one-possession games
| IU | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| +35.3 (#3) | CORE overall | -3.8 (#75) |
| +19 / -17 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 3.69 | points / drive | 1.74 |
| 0.94 | allowed / drive | 2.30 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →