| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IU | 7 | 13 | 21 | 14 | 55 |
| MD | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MD Elo 1573, IU Elo 2091) plus home-field advantage. That projects MD +18.3 (9% to win) — 2.7 points of value on MD versus the market line of +21.
IU up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Indiana 55, Maryland 10.
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Devan Boykin 32 Yd Fumble Return (Nico Radicic Kick)
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete short left to #0 D.Williams caught at UMD43, for 55 yards to the IND00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:54, 1ST DOWN #36 S.O'Haire kick attempt good (H: #34 B.McFerson, LS: #96 E.Gough)
(04:49) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass incomplete short left to #9 D.Fleming thrown to IND00, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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