Davis Wade StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGA | 3 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 41 |
| MSST | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MSST 1524
UGA 2017
Projected spread
MSST +17.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
UGA
90% to win
Market spread
MSST +9.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
UGA
7.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
10%
MSST · market 26%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MSST Elo 1524, UGA Elo 2017) plus home-field advantage. That projects MSST +17.3 (10% to win) — 7.8 points of value on UGA versus the market line of +9.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MSST (top)UGA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MSST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- MSST rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. UGA rush defense (-0.01 allowed) — edge MSST.
- UGA pass offense (0.36 PPA) vs. MSST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge UGA.
- MSST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. UGA pass defense (0.23 allowed) — edge UGA.
Drive-by-drive
UGA 7/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MSST 3/11 scoring drives
MSSTTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
UGAFG7 pl, 46 yds· own 23Q1
MSSTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UGA up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
UGA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia vs. Mississippi State?
Georgia 41, Mississippi State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UGA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.