Georgia vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UGATeam statsMSST
- Q4 4:47MSSTK. Taylor run for 2 yds, for a TD (K. Ferrie KICK)41–21
- Q4 12:03UGAPeyton Woodring 46 Yd Field Goal41–14
- Q3 4:49MSSTK. Taylor run for 1 yd, for a TD (K. Ferrie KICK)38–14
- Q3 9:58UGAG. Stockton pass to N. Thomas for 64 yds, for a TD (P. Woodring KICK)38–7
- Q3 12:32UGANate Frazier 59 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)31–7
- Q2 0:11UGAZachariah Branch 19 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)24–7
- Q2 5:09UGAOscar Delp 8 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:11UGAChauncey Bowens 4 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)10–7
- Q1 6:41UGAPeyton Woodring 49 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:26MSSTKamario Taylor 4 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassGunner Stockton 18/29, 264 YDS, 3 TD
- RushNate Frazier 12 CAR, 181 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNoah Thomas 3 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKamario Taylor 6/10, 87 YDS
- RushKamario Taylor 12 CAR, 53 YDS, 3 TD
- RecBrenen Thompson 4 REC, 92 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUGA up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia vs. Mississippi State?
Georgia 41, Mississippi State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
| UGA | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 567 | Total yards | 322 |
| 264 | Passing yards | 173 |
| 303 | Rushing yards | 149 |
| 30 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/30 | Comp/Att | 16/25 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 6.9 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 33:07 | Possession | 26:53 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:25 MSST go for it on 4th & 5 at UGA 23. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.46 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:47MSSTK. Taylor run for 2 yds, for a TD (K. Ferrie KICK)41–21
- Q4 12:03UGAPeyton Woodring 46 Yd Field Goal41–14
- Q3 4:49MSSTK. Taylor run for 1 yd, for a TD (K. Ferrie KICK)38–14
- Q3 9:58UGAG. Stockton pass to N. Thomas for 64 yds, for a TD (P. Woodring KICK)38–7
- Q3 12:32UGANate Frazier 59 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)31–7
- Q2 0:11UGAZachariah Branch 19 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)24–7
- Q2 5:09UGAOscar Delp 8 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)17–7
- Q2 14:11UGAChauncey Bowens 4 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)10–7
- Q1 6:41UGAPeyton Woodring 49 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:26MSSTKamario Taylor 4 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1524, UGA Elo 2017 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST +17.3 (14% to win) — 7.8 points clear of UGA's market line of +9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia leads 22–6 · Georgia has won 6 straight · 32% have been one-possession games
| UGA | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.0 (#15) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#64) |
| +9 / -11 | offense / defense | -1 / -1 |
| 3.08 | points / drive | 2.07 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →