Georgia Southern vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsAPP
- Q4 1:56APPJaden Barnes 16 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)25–23
- Q4 9:05GASOTripp Bryant 24 Yd Field Goal 25–16
- Q4 13:50APPJaquari Lewis 27 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)22–16
- Q3 4:51APPDavid Larkins 1 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–9
- Q3 9:20GASOTripp Bryant 23 Yd Field Goal 22–3
- Q2 0:00APPDominic De Freitas 36 Yd Field Goal 19–3
- Q2 1:14GASOTripp Bryant 26 Yd Field Goal 19–0
- Q2 7:31GASOJC French IV 3 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)16–0
- Q1 4:11GASOTripp Bryant 21 Yd Field Goal 9–0
- Q1 14:16GASOMarcus Sanders Jr. 47 Yd pass from JC French IV (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–0
How the model called it
- PassJC French IV 25/37, 352 YDS, 1 TD
- RushOJ Arnold 20 CAR, 105 YDS
- RecMarcus Sanders Jr. 6 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAJ Swann 34/51, 348 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJaquari Lewis 6 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaden Barnes 13 REC, 160 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:56APP +44%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Swann pass complete short middle to #15 J.Barnes caught at GSO00, for 16 yards to the GSO00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 1:48GASO +35%
Shotgun #22 O.Arnold rush right for 11 yards gain to the APP36 (#44 R.Porter), 1ST DOWN
- Q1 10:35APP +34%
#25 A.Smith punt 45 yards to the APP11 fair catch by #15 J.Barnes at APP11
- Q4 9:05GASO +24%
#95 T.Bryant field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD
- Q4 13:50APP +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Lewis rush right for 27 yards gain to the GSO00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 8:34GASO +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 R.Dubinion rush middle for 6 yards gain to the GSO35 (#23 D.Smith)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. App State?
Georgia Southern 25, App State 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked APP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GASO | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 494 | Total yards | 425 |
| 352 | Passing yards | 348 |
| 142 | Rushing yards | 77 |
| 25 | First downs | 23 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 4-6 |
| 25/37 | Comp/Att | 34/51 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-40 | Penalties | 6-65 |
| 32:20 | Possession | 27:40 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:24 GASO punt on 4th & 1 at GASO 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:56APPJaden Barnes 16 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)25–23
- Q4 9:05GASOTripp Bryant 24 Yd Field Goal 25–16
- Q4 13:50APPJaquari Lewis 27 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)22–16
- Q3 4:51APPDavid Larkins 1 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–9
- Q3 9:20GASOTripp Bryant 23 Yd Field Goal 22–3
- Q2 0:00APPDominic De Freitas 36 Yd Field Goal 19–3
- Q2 1:14GASOTripp Bryant 26 Yd Field Goal 19–0
- Q2 7:31GASOJC French IV 3 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)16–0
- Q1 4:11GASOTripp Bryant 21 Yd Field Goal 9–0
- Q1 14:16GASOMarcus Sanders Jr. 47 Yd pass from JC French IV (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (APP Elo 1332, GASO Elo 1310 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects APP -3.3 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesApp State leads 14–10 · Georgia Southern has won 3 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| GASO | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.7 (#105) | CORE overall | -18.4 (#121) |
| +2 / +17 | offense / defense | -10 / +9 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 1.87 |
| 3.06 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →