Kidd Brewer StadiumConference gameClosing line: APP -4.5 · GASO covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 9 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 25 |
| APP | 0 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 23 |
Team stats
GASOthis game · better side highlightedAPP
494
Total yards
425352
Passing yards
348142
Rushing yards
7725
First downs
236-15 · 40%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
APP 1332
GASO 1310
Projected spread
APP -3.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
APP
60% to win
Market spread
APP -4.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
60%
APP · market 64%
Our model blends Elo ratings (APP Elo 1332, GASO Elo 1310) plus home-field advantage. That projects APP -3.3 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
APP (top)GASO (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: APP 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- APP rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. GASO rush defense (0.27 allowed) — edge GASO.
- APP pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. GASO pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge GASO.
- GASO rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. APP rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge GASO.
Drive-by-drive
GASO 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →APP 4/11 scoring drives
GASOTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 26Q1
APPDOWNS6 pl, 38 yds· own 25Q1
GASOPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 37Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
GASO up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
91%
GASO went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. App State?
Georgia Southern 25, App State 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked APP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had APP pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.