#1Jaden Barnes

WR·App State·2025

Jaden Barnes is a Versatile WR for App State. Jaden's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 81 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jaden Barnes's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

55 Receptions608 Rec yards7 Rec TD11.1 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns1 KR yards0 KR TD16 Punt returns154 PR yards1 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume33
Explosiveness27
Consistency63
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency63th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.29 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.86 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Southern Miss (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Eli Heidenreich	Navy	2024	66	0.340	0.7	22.4
Chris Tyree	Notre Dame	2020	76	0.310	0.6	23.6
Micah Davis	Air Force	2021	44	0.370	0.6	16.3
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2021	41	0.370	0.6	15.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsCharlotte	W34-11	-26.7	6	134	22.3	1	59	0.78
2	vsLindenwood	W20-13	—	8	71	8.9	1	21	0.29
3	@Southern Miss	L22-38	-7.1	10	132	13.2	1	42	0.86
6	vsOregon State	W27-23	-15.9	1	5	5.0	0	5	-0.09
7	@Georgia State	W41-20	-24.5	2	13	6.5	1	11	0.32
8	vsCoastal Carolina	L37-45	-15.1	5	27	5.4	1	8	0.18
9	@Old Dominion	L21-24	5.9	9	63	7.0	1	18	0.42
11	vsGeorgia Southern	L23-25	-9.4	13	160	12.3	1	34	0.54
12	@James Madison	L10-58	12.3	1	3	3.0	0	3	-0.44

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

11.7%

Passing plays

19.7%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

10.3%

Passing downs

14.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.66
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.38 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).