Carter-Finley StadiumConference gameClosing line: FSU +-6.5 · NCSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| NCSU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Team stats
FSUthis game · better side highlightedNCSU
383
Total yards
286203
Passing yards
152180
Rushing yards
13421
First downs
205-12 · 42%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NCSU 1449
FSU 1638
Projected spread
NCSU +5.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
FSU
65% to win
Market spread
NCSU +6.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
35%
NCSU · market 33%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NCSU Elo 1449, FSU Elo 1638) plus home-field advantage. That projects NCSU +5.2 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NCSU (top)FSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NCSU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- NCSU pass offense (0.39 PPA) vs. FSU pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge NCSU.
- FSU rush offense (0.25 PPA) vs. NCSU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge FSU.
- NCSU rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. FSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge NCSU.
Drive-by-drive
FSU 2/9 scoring drives← own end zone →NCSU 3/11 scoring drives
NCSUPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
FSUINT9 pl, 56 yds· own 10Q1
NCSUTD9 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NCSU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
NCSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida State vs. NC State?
Florida State 11, NC State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had FSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.