Florida State vs. NC State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FSUTeam statsNCSU
- Q4 1:47NCSUJustin Joly 12 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)11–21
- Q4 8:17FSUDuce Robinson 9 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Tommy Castellanos Pass to Jayvan Boggs for Two-Point Conversion)11–14
- Q3 4:17NCSUWill Wilson 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)3–14
- Q2 14:06FSUJake Weinberg 46 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 2:56NCSUTerrell Anderson 23 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassThomas Castellanos 16/32, 203 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushThomas Castellanos 11 CAR, 76 YDS
- RecDuce Robinson 4 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCJ Bailey 18/25, 152 YDS, 2 TD
- RushHollywood Smothers 21 CAR, 84 YDS
- RecJustin Joly 5 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNCSU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:17FSU +36%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass complete short middle to #0 D.Robinson caught at NCSU00, for 9 yards to the NCSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #15 J.Boggs pass attempt…
- Q3 4:17NCSU +23%
Shotgun #10 W.Wilson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 2:56NCSU +19%
Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete deep right to #9 T.Anderson caught at FSU00, for 23 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 7:36NCSU +18%
Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #9 T.Anderson caught at NCSU40, for 3 yards to the NCSU40 (#19 J.Wilson)
- Q2 14:06FSU +9%
#22 J.Weinberg field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD
- Q3 13:12NCSU +6%
Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass incomplete short right to #9 T.Anderson thrown to NCSU34
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida State vs. NC State?
Florida State 11, NC State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FSU | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 383 | Total yards | 286 |
| 203 | Passing yards | 152 |
| 180 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 21 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 16/32 | Comp/Att | 18/26 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-37 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 27:03 | Possession | 32:57 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:43 FSU punt on 4th & 4 at NCSU 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:47NCSUJustin Joly 12 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)11–21
- Q4 8:17FSUDuce Robinson 9 Yd pass from Tommy Castellanos (Tommy Castellanos Pass to Jayvan Boggs for Two-Point Conversion)11–14
- Q3 4:17NCSUWill Wilson 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)3–14
- Q2 14:06FSUJake Weinberg 46 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 2:56NCSUTerrell Anderson 23 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NCSU Elo 1449, FSU Elo 1638 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NCSU +5.2 (38% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida State leads 27–17 · NC State has won 4 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| FSU | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.3 (#29) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#48) |
| +13 / -1 | offense / defense | +6 / -1 |
| 2.75 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →