Sat, Nov 22, 1:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| NCSU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NCSU Elo 1449, FSU Elo 1638) plus home-field advantage. That projects NCSU +5.2 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
NCSU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Florida State 11, NC State 21.
No — the model picked FSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had FSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Castellanos pass intercepted by #6 D.Marshall at NCSU09 QB hurried by #54 S.Harsh #6 D.Marshall return 18 yards to the NCSU27 (#0 D.Robinson)
(01:52) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short left to #7 J.Joly caught at FSU00, for 12 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:47, 1ST DOWN #94 K.Vinesett kick attempt good (H: #98 C.Noonkester, LS: #95 J.Mann)
(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete short right to #7 J.Joly caught at NCSU36, for 27 yards to the NCSU48 (#24 K.Kirkland; #3 E.Joseph), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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