Thomas Castellanos

QB·Florida State·2025 2023

Thomas Castellanos is a Dual-Threat QB for Florida State. Thomas's 2025 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 426 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Thomas Castellanos's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

180/309 Comp/Att2760 Pass yards15 Pass TD9 INT58.3% Comp %

Rushing

557 Rush yards9 Rush TD137 Carries4.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency15
Volume100
Dual-Threat95
Consistency79
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.25 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.17 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs East Texas A&M.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAlabama	W31-17	14.8	9/14	152	0	0	83.6	78	1	0.48
2	vsEast Texas A&M	W77-3	—	8/11	237	3	0	95.4	7	0	1.17
4	vsKent State	W66-10	-19.3	10/13	205	0	1	95.8	54	2	0.71
5	@Virginia	L38-46	11.1	18/32	254	1	2	50.9	78	1	0.17
6	vsMiami	L22-28	20.7	25/45	272	2	2	63.8	57	0	0.29
7	vsPittsburgh	L31-34	8.4	16/23	245	3	0	74.7	12	0	0.56
8	@Stanford	L13-20	-11.8	14/28	242	0	0	41.2	33	1	0.15
10	vsWake Forest	W42-7	5.7	12/16	271	1	0	88.5	9	1	0.61
11	@Clemson	L10-24	9.5	23/43	250	1	1	38.0	31	0	0.01
12	vsVirginia Tech	W34-14	-10.1	12/24	189	1	0	84.0	45	2	0.55
13	@NC State	L11-21	4.8	16/32	203	1	2	59.0	76	0	0.15
14	@Florida	L21-40	3.5	17/28	240	2	1	66.6	77	1	0.42

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.8%

Passing plays

90.7%

Rushing plays

24.2%

Standard downs

42.5%

Passing downs

73.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.53
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.38

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.