Sat, Nov 15, 5:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMU | 7 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
| BALL | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BALL Elo 1047, EMU Elo 1229) plus home-field advantage. That projects BALL +4.9 (36% to win) — 2.4 points of value on EMU versus the market line of +2.5.
EMU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Eastern Michigan 24, Ball State 9.
Yes — the model's pick (EMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had EMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(05:14) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass intercepted by #1 J.Scott at EMU03 #1 J.Scott return 0 yards to the EMU03 (#5 Q.Magwood)
(14:59) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 4 yards to the EMU19 (#42 A.Marshall), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass intercepted by #2 M.Gravely Jr. at BSU24, End Of Play
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