Eastern Michigan vs. Ball State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EMUTeam statsBALL
- Q4 9:13BALLDC Pippin 38 Yd Field Goal 24–9
- Q4 11:49EMUTavierre Dunlap 36 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)24–6
- Q3 10:04BALLDC Pippin 25 Yd Field Goal 17–6
- Q2 0:22EMURudy Kessinger 43 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 7:49EMUJamarien Wheeler 43 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)14–3
- Q2 12:16BALLDC Pippin 42 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:19EMUNoah Kim 1 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassNoah Kim 18/29, 229 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDontae McMillan 21 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecJamarien Wheeler 6 REC, 131 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKiael Kelly 13/22, 62 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKiael Kelly 15 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecQian Magwood 1 REC, 19 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsEMU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:19EMU +16%
Noah Kim 1 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)
- Q2 7:49EMU +15%
Jamarien Wheeler 43 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)
- Q2 11:24BALL +6%
#30 M.Tomasek punt 50 yards to the BSU23, out of bounds at BSU23
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Ball State?
Eastern Michigan 24, Ball State 9.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (EMU) was correct.
| EMU | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 380 | Total yards | 225 |
| 229 | Passing yards | 62 |
| 151 | Rushing yards | 163 |
| 21 | First downs | 13 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 18/29 | Comp/Att | 13/22 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 2.8 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-59 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 31:09 | Possession | 28:51 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:56 BALL punt on 4th & 2 at BALL 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:13BALLDC Pippin 38 Yd Field Goal 24–9
- Q4 11:49EMUTavierre Dunlap 36 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)24–6
- Q3 10:04BALLDC Pippin 25 Yd Field Goal 17–6
- Q2 0:22EMURudy Kessinger 43 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 7:49EMUJamarien Wheeler 43 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)14–3
- Q2 12:16BALLDC Pippin 42 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:19EMUNoah Kim 1 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BALL Elo 1047, EMU Elo 1229 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BALL +4.9 (38% to win) — 2.4 points clear of EMU's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBall State leads 32–18 · Eastern Michigan has won 3 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| EMU | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.0 (#114) | CORE overall | -27.9 (#133) |
| -3 / +13 | offense / defense | -22 / +6 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 1.14 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 39% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →