Scheumann StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMU | 7 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
| BALL | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BALL 1047
EMU 1229
Projected spread
BALL +4.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
EMU
64% to win
Market spread
BALL +2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
EMU
2.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
36%
BALL · market 44%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BALL Elo 1047, EMU Elo 1229) plus home-field advantage. That projects BALL +4.9 (36% to win) — 2.4 points of value on EMU versus the market line of +2.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BALL (top)EMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BALL 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- BALL pass offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. EMU pass defense (0.35 allowed) — edge EMU.
- BALL rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. EMU rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge EMU.
- EMU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. BALL pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge BALL.
Drive-by-drive
EMU 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →BALL 2/10 scoring drives
BALLPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1
EMUTD9 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q1
BALLINT8 pl, 62 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
EMU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
EMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Ball State?
Eastern Michigan 24, Ball State 9.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (EMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had EMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.