Yulman StadiumConference gameClosing line: TULN -7 · push
Thu, Oct 9, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU | 0 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 19 |
| TULN | 3 | 9 | 0 | 14 | 26 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TULN Elo 1572, ECU Elo 1548) plus home-field advantage. That projects TULN -3.4 (60% to win) — 3.6 points of value on ECU versus the market line of -7.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ECU ahead, below = TULN ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
ECU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
East Carolina 19, Tulane 26.
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TULN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Zycarl Lewis Jr. for 63 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
Arnold Barnes III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 4 Arnold Barnes III fumbled, recovered by ECU Teagan Wilk
Patrick Durkin run for 5 yds to the ECU 6
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