East Carolina vs. Tulane: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ECUTeam statsTULN
- Q4 0:35TULNJavin Gordon 4 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)19–26
- Q4 5:48ECUNick Mazzie 26 Yd Field Goal 19–19
- Q4 10:51TULNZycarl Lewis Jr. 63 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)16–19
- Q3 0:45ECUNick Mazzie 46 Yd Field Goal 16–12
- Q3 2:43ECUKatin Houser 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–12
- Q3 11:54ECUBrock Spalding 7 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)7–12
- Q2 0:36TULNPatrick Durkin 40 Yd Field Goal 0–12
- Q2 5:05TULNPatrick Durkin 21 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q2 13:37TULNPatrick Durkin 29 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 10:40TULNPatrick Durkin 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TULN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ECU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassKatin Houser 19/30, 180 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMarlon Gunn Jr. 10 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecAnthony Smith 2 REC, 54 YDS
- PassJake Retzlaff 26/36, 347 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJavin Gordon 10 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecZycarl Lewis Jr. 2 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 10:51TULN +48%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Zycarl Lewis Jr. for 63 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
- Q3 2:43ECU +25%
Katin Houser run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q4 0:35TULN +24%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Javin Gordon for 4 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
- Q4 5:48ECU +22%
Nick Mazzie 26 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 5:48TULN +18%
PENALTY TLN False Start (Baker,Elijah) 5 yards from TLN46 to TLN41. NO PLAY
- Q3 11:54ECU +18%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 7 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. Tulane?
East Carolina 19, Tulane 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
| ECU | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 340 | Total yards | 458 |
| 180 | Passing yards | 362 |
| 160 | Rushing yards | 96 |
| 22 | First downs | 24 |
| 10-19 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/30 | Comp/Att | 27/37 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 11-96 |
| 30:37 | Possession | 29:23 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:05 TULN field goal on 4th & 3 at ECU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:35TULNJavin Gordon 4 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)19–26
- Q4 5:48ECUNick Mazzie 26 Yd Field Goal 19–19
- Q4 10:51TULNZycarl Lewis Jr. 63 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)16–19
- Q3 0:45ECUNick Mazzie 46 Yd Field Goal 16–12
- Q3 2:43ECUKatin Houser 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–12
- Q3 11:54ECUBrock Spalding 7 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)7–12
- Q2 0:36TULNPatrick Durkin 40 Yd Field Goal 0–12
- Q2 5:05TULNPatrick Durkin 21 Yd Field Goal 0–9
- Q2 13:37TULNPatrick Durkin 29 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 10:40TULNPatrick Durkin 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TULN Elo 1572, ECU Elo 1548 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TULN -3.4 (60% to win) — 3.6 points clear of ECU's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesEast Carolina leads 12–9 · Tulane has won 3 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| ECU | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.8 (#46) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#47) |
| +2 / -5 | offense / defense | +5 / -2 |
| 2.48 | points / drive | 2.56 |
| 1.64 | allowed / drive | 2.20 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →