| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEL | 3 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 30 |
| LIB | 7 | 21 | 21 | 10 | 59 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LIB Elo 1424, DEL Elo 1465) plus home-field advantage. That projects LIB -0.8 (52% to win) — 2.7 points of value on DEL versus the market line of -3.5.
LIB up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Delaware 30, Liberty 59.
Yes — the model's pick (LIB) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had LIB pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(14:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush right for 72 yards gain to the DEL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:30, 1ST DOWN #43 J.Billingsley kick attempt good (H: #37 M.Morgan, LS: #47 R.Manis)
End of 3rd quarter.
End of 2nd quarter.
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