Delaware vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
DELTeam statsLIB
- Q4 4:49LIBBrayden Beck 32 Yd Field Goal 30–59
- Q4 9:05LIBVaughn Blue 12 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)30–56
- Q4 12:57DELNick Minicucci 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–49
- Q3 0:28LIBDonte Lee Jr. 31 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)24–49
- Q3 3:07LIBJacob Jenkins 15 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)24–42
- Q3 5:49DELDonovan Lewis 3 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nick Minicucci Pass to Kyre Duplessis for Two-Point Conversion)24–35
- Q3 12:58DELElijah Sessoms 8 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)16–35
- Q3 14:30LIBEvan Dickens 72 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)9–35
- Q2 0:00DELNate Reed 42 Yd Field Goal 9–28
- Q2 1:39LIBEvan Dickens 30 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)6–28
- Q2 2:57LIBEvan Dickens 1 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)6–21
- Q2 11:18LIBEvan Dickens 5 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)6–14
- Q2 14:05DELNate Reed 28 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 6:02LIBEthan Vasko 15 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:29DELNate Reed 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- DEL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LIB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.1 vs 3rd & 5.0
- PassNick Minicucci 29/49, 344 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushNick Minicucci 8 CAR, 37 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSean Wilson 5 REC, 109 YDS
- PassEthan Vasko 14/20, 221 YDS, 2 TD
- RushEvan Dickens 22 CAR, 217 YDS, 4 TD
- RecDonte Lee Jr. 5 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLIB up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:18LIB +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Dickens rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DEL00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 6:02LIB +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush left for 15 yards gain to the DEL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 4:55LIB +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass complete short middle to #9 D.Lee Jr. caught at DEL19, for 19 yards to the DEL01 fumbled by #9 D.Lee Jr. at DEL01 forced by #7 K.Sea…
- Q2 14:05DEL +9%
#91 N.Reed field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD
- Q1 11:29DEL +8%
#91 N.Reed field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD
- Q3 10:15DEL +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 E.Vasko pass incomplete short right to #6 R.Smith thrown to DEL47
FAQ
What was the final score of Delaware vs. Liberty?
Delaware 30, Liberty 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LIB) was correct.
| DEL | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 420 | Total yards | 561 |
| 344 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 76 | Rushing yards | 282 |
| 18 | First downs | 25 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 29/49 | Comp/Att | 16/23 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 12.1 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 28:30 | Possession | 31:30 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:34 DEL go for it on 4th & 6 at DEL 28. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.53 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:49LIBBrayden Beck 32 Yd Field Goal 30–59
- Q4 9:05LIBVaughn Blue 12 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)30–56
- Q4 12:57DELNick Minicucci 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–49
- Q3 0:28LIBDonte Lee Jr. 31 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)24–49
- Q3 3:07LIBJacob Jenkins 15 Yd pass from Ethan Vasko (Jay Billingsley Kick)24–42
- Q3 5:49DELDonovan Lewis 3 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nick Minicucci Pass to Kyre Duplessis for Two-Point Conversion)24–35
- Q3 12:58DELElijah Sessoms 8 Yd pass from Nick Minicucci (Nate Reed Kick)16–35
- Q3 14:30LIBEvan Dickens 72 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)9–35
- Q2 0:00DELNate Reed 42 Yd Field Goal 9–28
- Q2 1:39LIBEvan Dickens 30 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)6–28
- Q2 2:57LIBEvan Dickens 1 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)6–21
- Q2 11:18LIBEvan Dickens 5 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)6–14
- Q2 14:05DELNate Reed 28 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 6:02LIBEthan Vasko 15 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)3–7
- Q1 11:29DELNate Reed 42 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1424, DEL Elo 1465 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB -0.8 (53% to win) — 2.7 points clear of DEL's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| DEL | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.0 (#107) | CORE overall | -7.1 (#88) |
| -5 / +10 | offense / defense | +2 / +9 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 2.63 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →