Colorado State vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CSUTeam statsWYO
- Q3 10:51WYOSam Scott 37 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)0–28
- Q2 0:36WYOChris Durr Jr. 9 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)0–21
- Q2 14:15WYOMichael Fitzgerald 22 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)0–14
- Q1 2:43WYOLandon Sims 1 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDarius Curry 9/16, 112 YDS
- RushJustin Marshall 6 CAR, 33 YDS
- RecTay Lanier 3 REC, 56 YDS
- PassKaden Anderson 16/24, 154 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSam Scott 3 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChris Durr Jr. 7 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWYO up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:43WYO +19%
Shotgun #14 L.Sims rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:15WYO +16%
Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete deep right to #11 M.Fitzgerald caught at CSU00, for 22 yards to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 6:00CSU +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass incomplete deep middle to #89 K.Higgins thrown to WYO20 PENALTY WYO Holding (#20 D.Miller) 10 yards from CSU30 to CSU40, 1ST DOWN…
- Q2 0:36WYO +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short left to #13 C.Durr caught at CSU00, for 9 yards to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 7:28WYO +6%
PENALTY WYO False Start (#86 E.Svoboda) 5 yards from WYO36 to WYO31. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. Wyoming?
Colorado State 0, Wyoming 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WYO) was correct.
| CSU | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 305 | Total yards | 372 |
| 211 | Passing yards | 160 |
| 94 | Rushing yards | 212 |
| 15 | First downs | 18 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/34 | Comp/Att | 17/25 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-69 | Penalties | 7-50 |
| 28:11 | Possession | 31:49 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:28 CSU punt on 4th & 1 at CSU 13. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 10:51WYOSam Scott 37 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)0–28
- Q2 0:36WYOChris Durr Jr. 9 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)0–21
- Q2 14:15WYOMichael Fitzgerald 22 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)0–14
- Q1 2:43WYOLandon Sims 1 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1336, CSU Elo 1353 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO -1.7 (56% to win) — 3.8 points clear of CSU's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesColorado State leads 57–52–5 · 34% have been one-possession games
| CSU | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.4 (#123) | CORE overall | -15.3 (#111) |
| -8 / +12 | offense / defense | -18 / -3 |
| 1.58 | points / drive | 1.07 |
| 2.91 | allowed / drive | 1.65 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →