War Memorial StadiumConference game
Sat, Oct 25, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WYO | 7 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 28 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WYO Elo 1336, CSU Elo 1353) plus home-field advantage. That projects WYO -1.7 (55% to win) — 3.8 points of value on CSU versus the market line of -5.5.
WYO up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Colorado State 0, Wyoming 28.
Yes — the model's pick (WYO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WYO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass intercepted by #7 M.Grant at WYO00, Touchback
Shotgun #3 D.Curry rush middle for 5 yards loss to the WYO10 fumbled by #3 D.Curry at WYO12 recovered by CSU #3 D.Curry at WYO10, End Of Play, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Shotgun #22 S.Scott rush middle for 37 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:51, 1ST DOWN #47 E.Sandvik kick attempt good (H: #43 G.Helm, LS: #52 C.York)
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