Colorado State vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CSUTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 0:00CSUKory Hall 12 Yd pass from Darius Curry 24–45
- Q4 0:00CSUD. Curry pass to K. Hall for 12 yds for a TD24–45
- Q4 10:21SDSUByron Cardwell Jr. 20 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)18–45
- Q4 12:58CSUJackson Brousseau 4 Yd Run (Jackson Brousseau Pass to Rocky Beers for Two-Point Conversion)18–38
- Q3 4:43SDSULucky Sutton 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)10–38
- Q3 11:45SDSUGabriel Plascencia 53 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q2 0:51SDSULucky Sutton 14 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)10–28
- Q2 1:32CSUIsaiah Hankins 30 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q2 7:28SDSUJordan Napier 42 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–21
- Q2 11:24CSUArmani Winfield 49 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–14
- Q2 12:33SDSUChristian Washington 2 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:56SDSUDonovan Brown 45 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SDSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.5
- PassJackson Brousseau 13/25, 155 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJalen Dupree 16 CAR, 103 YDS
- RecArmani Winfield 2 REC, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJayden Denegal 13/16, 256 YDS, 2 TD
- RushByron Cardwell Jr. 15 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan Napier 7 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:56SDSU +15%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 45 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
- Q2 11:24CSU +12%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Armani Winfield for 49 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q2 7:28SDSU +11%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 42 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
- Q2 12:33SDSU +11%
Christian Washington run for 2 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
- Q2 0:51SDSU +7%
Lucky Sutton run for 14 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. San Diego State?
Colorado State 24, San Diego State 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
| CSU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 355 | Total yards | 540 |
| 206 | Passing yards | 259 |
| 149 | Rushing yards | 281 |
| 22 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 7-11 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/30 | Comp/Att | 14/18 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 14.4 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1-5 | Penalties | 9-89 |
| 25:58 | Possession | 34:02 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:32 SDSU punt on 4th & 4 at CSU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00CSUKory Hall 12 Yd pass from Darius Curry 24–45
- Q4 0:00CSUD. Curry pass to K. Hall for 12 yds for a TD24–45
- Q4 10:21SDSUByron Cardwell Jr. 20 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)18–45
- Q4 12:58CSUJackson Brousseau 4 Yd Run (Jackson Brousseau Pass to Rocky Beers for Two-Point Conversion)18–38
- Q3 4:43SDSULucky Sutton 1 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)10–38
- Q3 11:45SDSUGabriel Plascencia 53 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q2 0:51SDSULucky Sutton 14 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)10–28
- Q2 1:32CSUIsaiah Hankins 30 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q2 7:28SDSUJordan Napier 42 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–21
- Q2 11:24CSUArmani Winfield 49 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–14
- Q2 12:33SDSUChristian Washington 2 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:56SDSUDonovan Brown 45 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1424, CSU Elo 1320 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -6.6 (68% to win) — 2.1 points clear of SDSU's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan Diego State leads 23–15 · 37% have been one-possession games
| CSU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.4 (#123) | CORE overall | +11.6 (#35) |
| -8 / +12 | offense / defense | -2 / -14 |
| 1.58 | points / drive | 1.88 |
| 2.91 | allowed / drive | 1.14 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →