Sat, Oct 4, 2:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 0 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| SDSU | 7 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SDSU Elo 1424, CSU Elo 1320) plus home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -6.6 (69% to win) — 2.1 points of value on SDSU versus the market line of -4.5.
SDSU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Colorado State 24, San Diego State 45.
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had SDSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 61 yds to the CSU 14 for a 1ST down Colorado State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jordan Ross) declined for a 1ST down
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Donovan Brown for 45 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Armani Winfield for 49 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
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