Snapdragon StadiumConference gameClosing line: SDSU -4.5 · SDSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 0 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| SDSU | 7 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 45 |
Team stats
CSUthis game · better side highlightedSDSU
355
Total yards
541206
Passing yards
259149
Rushing yards
28222
First downs
244-14 · 29%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SDSU 1424
CSU 1320
Projected spread
SDSU -6.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
SDSU
69% to win
Market spread
SDSU -4.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
SDSU
2.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
69%
SDSU · market 63%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SDSU Elo 1424, CSU Elo 1320) plus home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -6.6 (69% to win) — 2.1 points of value on SDSU versus the market line of -4.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SDSU (top)CSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SDSU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- SDSU pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. CSU pass defense (0.38 allowed) — edge CSU.
- CSU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (-0.04 allowed) — edge CSU.
- CSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. SDSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge CSU.
Drive-by-drive
CSU 4/10 scoring drives← own end zone →SDSU 7/10 scoring drives
CSUPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q1
SDSUPUNT6 pl, 25 yds· own 31Q1
CSUPUNT6 pl, 50 yds· own 1Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SDSU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
SDSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. San Diego State?
Colorado State 24, San Diego State 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had SDSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.