Charlotte vs. Army: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CLTTeam statsARMY
- Q4 0:08CLTKD Hunter-Gibson 16 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Liam Boyd Kick)7–24
- Q3 4:16ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)0–24
- Q2 0:00ARMYDawson Jones 38 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 3:39ARMYCarson Smith 5 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)0–14
- Q1 3:40ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassGrayson Loftis 8/12, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRod Gainey Jr. 19 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecSean Brown 4 REC, 32 YDS
- PassCale Hellums 2/4, 50 YDS
- RushCale Hellums 21 CAR, 143 YDS, 2 TD
- RecNoah Short 1 REC, 44 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARMY up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Charlotte vs. Army?
Charlotte 7, Army 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARMY) was correct.
| CLT | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 178 | Total yards | 354 |
| 110 | Passing yards | 50 |
| 68 | Rushing yards | 304 |
| 11 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 16/26 | Comp/Att | 2/6 |
| 4.2 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 22:06 | Possession | 37:54 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:20 ARMY punt on 4th & 5 at CLT 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.50 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:08CLTKD Hunter-Gibson 16 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Liam Boyd Kick)7–24
- Q3 4:16ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)0–24
- Q2 0:00ARMYDawson Jones 38 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 3:39ARMYCarson Smith 5 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)0–14
- Q1 3:40ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1551, CLT Elo 1144 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -18.7 (89% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CLT | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| -33.1 (#135) | CORE overall | -3.5 (#74) |
| -23 / +10 | offense / defense | -0 / +3 |
| 0.88 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 2.98 | allowed / drive | 2.41 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -34 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →