Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CMUTeam statsWMU
- Q4 2:08WMUTalique Williams 7 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Palmer Domschke Kick)21–24
- Q4 9:01WMUPalmer Domschke 46 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q4 14:53CMUTyson Davis 33 Yd pass from Marcus Beamon (Cade Graham Kick)21–14
- Q3 8:43WMUJalen Buckley 9 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)14–14
- Q2 7:23CMULangston Lewis 77 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)14–7
- Q2 7:43WMUBroc Lowry 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:31CMUN. Biggins run for 1 yd, for a TD (C. Graham KICK)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJoe Labas 8/11, 152 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushBrock Townsend 9 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecLangston Lewis 4 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBroc Lowry 17/24, 150 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBroc Lowry 22 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTalique Williams 7 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:08WMU +70%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #0 T.Williams caught at CMU00, for 7 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 14:53CMU +32%
Shotgun #10 M.Beamon pass complete deep left to #3 T.Davis caught at WMU02, for 33 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 8:43WMU +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 7:23CMU +25%
Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #20 L.Lewis caught at CMU36, for 77 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 1:43WMU +24%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 4 yards gain to the CMU10 (#1 D.Cochran)
- Q4 2:01CMU +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short left to #22 B.Townsend caught at CMU20, for 1 yard loss to the CMU24 (#9 J.Camden; #8 J.Sims) PENALTY CMU Holding (#76…
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan?
Central Michigan 21, Western Michigan 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
| CMU | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 240 | Total yards | 327 |
| 185 | Passing yards | 150 |
| 55 | Rushing yards | 177 |
| 13 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 9/12 | Comp/Att | 17/24 |
| 15.4 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 7-59 |
| 26:18 | Possession | 33:42 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:08WMUTalique Williams 7 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Palmer Domschke Kick)21–24
- Q4 9:01WMUPalmer Domschke 46 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q4 14:53CMUTyson Davis 33 Yd pass from Marcus Beamon (Cade Graham Kick)21–14
- Q3 8:43WMUJalen Buckley 9 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)14–14
- Q2 7:23CMULangston Lewis 77 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)14–7
- Q2 7:43WMUBroc Lowry 1 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:31CMUN. Biggins run for 1 yd, for a TD (C. Graham KICK)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WMU Elo 1369, CMU Elo 1234 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WMU -7.8 (71% to win) — 2.3 points clear of WMU's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesCentral Michigan leads 32–27–1 · 43% have been one-possession games
| CMU | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.9 (#87) | CORE overall | +1.8 (#62) |
| -4 / +3 | offense / defense | -5 / -7 |
| 1.94 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 1.60 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -13 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →