Waldo StadiumConference gameClosing line: WMU -5.5 · CMU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| WMU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 24 |
Team stats
CMUthis game · better side highlightedWMU
240
Total yards
327185
Passing yards
15055
Rushing yards
17713
First downs
235-11 · 45%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WMU 1369
CMU 1234
Projected spread
WMU -7.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
WMU
72% to win
Market spread
WMU -5.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
WMU
2.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
72%
WMU · market 64%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WMU Elo 1369, CMU Elo 1234) plus home-field advantage. That projects WMU -7.8 (72% to win) — 2.3 points of value on WMU versus the market line of -5.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WMU (top)CMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WMU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- CMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge CMU.
- WMU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. CMU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge WMU.
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. CMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge CMU.
Drive-by-drive
CMU 3/9 scoring drives← own end zone →WMU 4/9 scoring drives
WMUPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q1
CMUTD13 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1
WMUPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 27Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
WMU win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan?
Central Michigan 21, Western Michigan 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.