Sat, Nov 1, 8:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| WMU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WMU Elo 1369, CMU Elo 1234) plus home-field advantage. That projects WMU -7.8 (72% to win) — 2.3 points of value on WMU versus the market line of -5.5.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Central Michigan 21, Western Michigan 24.
Yes — the model's pick (WMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(07:35) Shotgun #2 J.Labas pass complete short middle to #20 L.Lewis caught at CMU36, for 77 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:23, 1ST DOWN #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt)
(14:58) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon pass complete deep left to #3 T.Davis caught at WMU02, for 33 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:53, 1ST DOWN #47 C.Graham kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #30 B.Pratt)
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 3 yards loss to the CMU05 fumbled by #12 B.Lowry at CMU01 forced by #1 D.Cochran recovered by CMU #98 J.Decker at CMU05, End Of Play
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