Central Michigan vs. Akron: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CMUTeam statsAKR
- Q4 1:33CMUCade Graham 47 Yd Field Goal 22–28
- Q4 11:35CMUAngel Flores 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–28
- Q3 0:02CMUCade Graham 35 Yd Field Goal 13–28
- Q3 3:35AKRConner Cravaack 2 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)10–28
- Q3 10:38AKRMax Whisner 1 Yd pass from Michael Johnson Jr. (Owen Wiley Kick)10–21
- Q2 3:13AKRJordan Gant 16 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)10–14
- Q2 8:34CMUAngel Flores 28 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:15AKRKyan Mason 22 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)3–7
- Q1 5:46CMUCade Graham 46 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CMU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AKR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 5.8
- CMU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassJoe Labas 12/21, 134 YDS
- RushBrock Townsend 8 CAR, 108 YDS
- RecTyson Davis 3 REC, 51 YDS
- PassBen Finley 18/29, 252 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordan Gant 32 CAR, 176 YDS
- RecKyan Mason 5 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAKR up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:13AKR +23%
Jordan Gant 16 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)
- Q2 8:34CMU +21%
Angel Flores run for 28 yds for a TD (Cade Graham KICK)
- Q3 10:38AKR +21%
Max Whisner 1 Yd pass from Michael Johnson Jr. (Owen Wiley Kick)
- Q2 12:15AKR +18%
Kyan Mason 22 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)
- Q3 3:35AKR +9%
Conner Cravaack 2 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)
- Q1 5:46CMU +8%
Cade Graham 46 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Akron?
Central Michigan 22, Akron 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CMU | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| 374 | Total yards | 417 |
| 136 | Passing yards | 255 |
| 238 | Rushing yards | 162 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 14/25 | Comp/Att | 20/31 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-65 | Penalties | 8-69 |
| 27:42 | Possession | 32:18 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:37 AKR punt on 4th & 2 at AKR 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:33CMUCade Graham 47 Yd Field Goal 22–28
- Q4 11:35CMUAngel Flores 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–28
- Q3 0:02CMUCade Graham 35 Yd Field Goal 13–28
- Q3 3:35AKRConner Cravaack 2 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)10–28
- Q3 10:38AKRMax Whisner 1 Yd pass from Michael Johnson Jr. (Owen Wiley Kick)10–21
- Q2 3:13AKRJordan Gant 16 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)10–14
- Q2 8:34CMUAngel Flores 28 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)10–7
- Q2 12:15AKRKyan Mason 22 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)3–7
- Q1 5:46CMUCade Graham 46 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AKR Elo 995, CMU Elo 1124 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AKR +2.8 (44% to win) — 4.2 points clear of AKR's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesCentral Michigan leads 18–8–1 · 59% have been one-possession games
| CMU | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.9 (#87) | CORE overall | -21.3 (#128) |
| -4 / +3 | offense / defense | -13 / +8 |
| 1.94 | points / drive | 1.55 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 2.41 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -13 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →