InfoCision StadiumConference gameClosing line: CMU +-7 · AKR covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMU | 3 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| AKR | 0 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 28 |
Team stats
CMUthis game · better side highlightedAKR
374
Total yards
422136
Passing yards
255238
Rushing yards
16720
First downs
204-12 · 33%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
AKR 995
CMU 1124
Projected spread
AKR +2.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
CMU
58% to win
Market spread
AKR +7
sportsbook line
Model edge
AKR
4.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
42%
AKR · market 30%
Our model blends Elo ratings (AKR Elo 995, CMU Elo 1124) plus home-field advantage. That projects AKR +2.8 (42% to win) — 4.2 points of value on AKR versus the market line of +7.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
AKR (top)CMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: AKR 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- CMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. AKR pass defense (0.23 allowed) — edge CMU.
- CMU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. AKR rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge CMU.
- AKR rush offense (0.00 PPA) vs. CMU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge CMU.
Drive-by-drive
CMU 5/10 scoring drives← own end zone →AKR 4/10 scoring drives
CMUUncateg6 pl, 11 yds· own 22Q1
AKRPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 40Q1
CMUFG8 pl, 64 yds· own 8Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
AKR up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
95%
AKR went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Akron?
Central Michigan 22, Akron 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had CMU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.