| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | 3 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 34 |
| ECU | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ECU Elo 1519, BYU Elo 1666) plus home-field advantage. That projects ECU +3.5 (40% to win) — 2.5 points of value on ECU versus the market line of +6.
BYU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
BYU 34, East Carolina 13.
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BYU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Katin Houser pass intercepted Evan Johnson return for 4 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
LJ Martin run for 41 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
Katin Houser pass intercepted Evan Johnson return for 11 yds to the BYU 11
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