BYU vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsECU
- Q4 3:44BYULJ Martin 41 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)34–13
- Q4 8:11ECUKatin Houser 2 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)27–13
- Q4 12:29BYUBear Bachmeier 16 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)27–6
- Q3 2:27ECUNick Mazzie 25 Yd Field Goal 20–6
- Q3 6:33BYUCarsen Ryan 20 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)20–3
- Q2 0:56BYUEvan Johnson 4 Yd Interception Return (Will Ferrin Kick)13–3
- Q2 10:50BYUWill Ferrin 23 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q1 0:18ECUNick Mazzie 36 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:58BYUWill Ferrin 40 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassBear Bachmeier 18/25, 246 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLJ Martin 14 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChase Roberts 5 REC, 97 YDS
- PassKatin Houser 25/42, 285 YDS, 2 INT
- RushLondon Montgomery 6 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecYannick Smith 9 REC, 146 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBYU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:56BYU +15%
Katin Houser pass intercepted Evan Johnson return for 4 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q2 10:50BYU +11%
Will Ferrin 23 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 0:18ECU +10%
Nick Mazzie 36 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 6:33BYU +8%
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 20 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- Q1 9:58BYU +7%
Will Ferrin 40 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. East Carolina?
BYU 34, East Carolina 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
| BYU | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 418 | Total yards | 404 |
| 246 | Passing yards | 285 |
| 172 | Rushing yards | 119 |
| 20 | First downs | 24 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 18/26 | Comp/Att | 25/42 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 10-101 | Penalties | 11-76 |
| 31:39 | Possession | 28:21 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:17 BYU punt on 4th & 5 at ECU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.50 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:44BYULJ Martin 41 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)34–13
- Q4 8:11ECUKatin Houser 2 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)27–13
- Q4 12:29BYUBear Bachmeier 16 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)27–6
- Q3 2:27ECUNick Mazzie 25 Yd Field Goal 20–6
- Q3 6:33BYUCarsen Ryan 20 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)20–3
- Q2 0:56BYUEvan Johnson 4 Yd Interception Return (Will Ferrin Kick)13–3
- Q2 10:50BYUWill Ferrin 23 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q1 0:18ECUNick Mazzie 36 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:58BYUWill Ferrin 40 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1519, BYU Elo 1666 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU +3.5 (42% to win) — 2.5 points clear of ECU's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BYU | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.0 (#20) | CORE overall | +7.8 (#46) |
| +10 / -8 | offense / defense | +2 / -5 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 2.48 |
| 1.85 | allowed / drive | 1.64 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -0 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →