Warren McGuirk Alumni StadiumConference game
Sat, Oct 18, 6:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 3 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 28 |
| MASS | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MASS Elo 889, BUF Elo 1377) plus home-field advantage. That projects MASS +17.1 (10% to win), essentially in line with the market.
MASS up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Buffalo 28, Massachusetts 21.
Yes — the model's pick (BUF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BUF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Max Dowling 77 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick)
Brandon Hood 90 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 37 yds to the MASS 38 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →