Buffalo vs. Massachusetts: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BUFTeam statsMASS
- Q4 0:19BUFVictor Snow 16 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Ta'Quan Roberson Pass to Nik McMillan for Two-Point Conversion)28–21
- Q3 0:18BUFJack Howes 47 Yd Field Goal 20–21
- Q3 5:37MASSMax Dowling 77 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick)17–21
- Q3 7:02BUFTerrance Shelton Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)17–14
- Q2 2:55BUFVictor Snow 23 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)10–14
- Q2 4:12MASSBrandon Hood 90 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)3–14
- Q2 9:44MASSKezion Dia-Johnson 27 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick)3–7
- Q1 4:39BUFJack Howes 23 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassTa'Quan Roberson 36/55, 403 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAl-Jay Henderson 20 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecNik McMillan 10 REC, 119 YDS
- PassAJ Hairston Jr 6/14, 119 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBrandon Hood 24 CAR, 179 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMax Dowling 1 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMASS up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:21BUF +61%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for no gain to the BUF 35
- Q4 0:54MASS +54%
Massachusetts Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Derrieon Craig) to the MASS 10
- Q4 3:09MASS +36%
Derek Morris 54 yd FG MISSED
- Q4 2:31BUF +31%
Buffalo Penalty, delay of game (Ta'Quan Roberson) to the BUF 38
- Q4 0:19BUF +30%
Victor Snow 16 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Ta'Quan Roberson Pass to Nik McMillan for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q3 5:37MASS +27%
Max Dowling 77 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Buffalo vs. Massachusetts?
Buffalo 28, Massachusetts 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BUF) was correct.
| BUF | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| 475 | Total yards | 306 |
| 403 | Passing yards | 119 |
| 72 | Rushing yards | 187 |
| 29 | First downs | 11 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 36/55 | Comp/Att | 6/14 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-64 | Penalties | 10-55 |
| 34:20 | Possession | 25:40 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:07 BUF punt on 4th & 3 at MASS 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.04 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:19BUFVictor Snow 16 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Ta'Quan Roberson Pass to Nik McMillan for Two-Point Conversion)28–21
- Q3 0:18BUFJack Howes 47 Yd Field Goal 20–21
- Q3 5:37MASSMax Dowling 77 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick)17–21
- Q3 7:02BUFTerrance Shelton Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)17–14
- Q2 2:55BUFVictor Snow 23 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)10–14
- Q2 4:12MASSBrandon Hood 90 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)3–14
- Q2 9:44MASSKezion Dia-Johnson 27 Yd pass from AJ Hairston (Derek Morris Kick)3–7
- Q1 4:39BUFJack Howes 23 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MASS Elo 889, BUF Elo 1377 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MASS +17.1 (14% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBuffalo leads 10–2 · Buffalo has won 3 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| BUF | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.7 (#124) | CORE overall | -40.3 (#136) |
| -15 / +5 | offense / defense | -22 / +18 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 0.88 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 3.71 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 43% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →