L&N Federal Credit Union StadiumClosing line: LOU -26 · BGSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 17 |
| LOU | 7 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 40 |
Team stats
BGSUthis game · better side highlightedLOU
321
Total yards
439131
Passing yards
313190
Rushing yards
12614
First downs
214-12 · 33%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
LOU 1727
BGSU 1456
Projected spread
LOU -13.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
LOU
84% to win
Market spread
LOU -26
sportsbook line
Model edge
BGSU
12.8 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
84%
LOU · market 94%
Our model blends Elo ratings (LOU Elo 1727, BGSU Elo 1456) plus home-field advantage. That projects LOU -13.2 (84% to win) — 12.8 points of value on BGSU versus the market line of -26.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
LOU (top)BGSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LOU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- LOU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. BGSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge LOU.
- LOU pass offense (0.13 PPA) vs. BGSU pass defense (0.28 allowed) — edge BGSU.
- BGSU rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. LOU rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge LOU.
Drive-by-drive
BGSU 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →LOU 7/11 scoring drives
BGSUPUNT4 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q1
LOUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 23Q1
BGSUPUNT5 pl, 26 yds· own 7Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
LOU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
LOU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Louisville?
Bowling Green 17, Louisville 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had LOU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.