Bowling Green vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsLOU
- Q4 4:16BGSUJacob Harris 38 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jackson Kleather Kick)17–40
- Q4 6:50LOUBraxton Jennings 3 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)10–40
- Q4 12:37BGSULucian Anderson III 75 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)10–33
- Q4 12:53LOUCooper Ranvier 48 Yd Field Goal 3–33
- Q3 2:24LOUNick Keller 57 Yd Field Goal 3–30
- Q3 7:21LOUCooper Ranvier 40 Yd Field Goal 3–27
- Q3 10:34LOUCooper Ranvier 24 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 8:13LOUCaullin Lacy 75 Yd Punt Return (Cooper Ranvier Kick)3–21
- Q2 10:50LOUKeyjuan Brown 2 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:03LOUKeyjuan Brown 2 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:44BGSUJackson Kleather 49 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LOU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BGSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.0 vs 3rd & 7.2
- PassDrew Pyne 11/21, 131 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushLucian Anderson III 4 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJacob Harris 3 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMiller Moss 23/32, 316 YDS
- RushKeyjuan Brown 12 CAR, 84 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCaullin Lacy 8 REC, 97 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLOU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:03LOU +14%
Keyjuan Brown run for 2 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
- Q2 10:50LOU +9%
Keyjuan Brown run for 2 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
- Q1 6:44BGSU +7%
Jackson Kleather 49 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Louisville?
Bowling Green 17, Louisville 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
| BGSU | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 321 | Total yards | 439 |
| 131 | Passing yards | 313 |
| 190 | Rushing yards | 126 |
| 14 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 11/21 | Comp/Att | 24/33 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 6.6 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-43 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 26:08 | Possession | 33:52 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:42 LOU punt on 4th & 1 at LOU 32. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:16BGSUJacob Harris 38 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jackson Kleather Kick)17–40
- Q4 6:50LOUBraxton Jennings 3 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)10–40
- Q4 12:37BGSULucian Anderson III 75 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)10–33
- Q4 12:53LOUCooper Ranvier 48 Yd Field Goal 3–33
- Q3 2:24LOUNick Keller 57 Yd Field Goal 3–30
- Q3 7:21LOUCooper Ranvier 40 Yd Field Goal 3–27
- Q3 10:34LOUCooper Ranvier 24 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 8:13LOUCaullin Lacy 75 Yd Punt Return (Cooper Ranvier Kick)3–21
- Q2 10:50LOUKeyjuan Brown 2 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:03LOUKeyjuan Brown 2 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:44BGSUJackson Kleather 49 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1727, BGSU Elo 1456 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LOU -13.2 (81% to win) — 12.8 points clear of BGSU's market line of -26. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BGSU | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.8 (#122) | CORE overall | +18.6 (#18) |
| -16 / +3 | offense / defense | +5 / -14 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 2.20 | allowed / drive | 1.71 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →