Boise State vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsND
- Q4 7:54NDJadarian Price 49 Yd Run (Marcello Diomede Kick)7–28
- Q3 5:49NDMalachi Fields 6 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Marcello Diomede Kick)7–21
- Q2 0:48NDJeremiyah Love 4 Yd Run (Will Pauling Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)7–14
- Q2 4:03BOISMaddux Madsen 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)7–6
- Q1 4:47NDWill Pauling 19 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt PAT blocked)0–6
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ND played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BOIS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.1 vs 3rd & 8.0
- PassMaddux Madsen 22/37, 215 YDS, 4 INT
- RushSire Gaines 11 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecChris Marshall 4 REC, 58 YDS
- PassCJ Carr 15/23, 189 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJeremiyah Love 16 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan Faison 6 REC, 83 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsND up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:48ND +11%
Jeremiyah Love run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Pauling pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q2 4:03BOIS +10%
Maddux Madsen run for 1 yd for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. Notre Dame?
Boise State 7, Notre Dame 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
| BOIS | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 315 | Total yards | 389 |
| 215 | Passing yards | 189 |
| 100 | Rushing yards | 200 |
| 23 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 22/37 | Comp/Att | 15/23 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 6.5 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 13-112 | Penalties | 11-112 |
| 35:46 | Possession | 24:14 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:27 ND go for it on 4th & 8 at BOIS 28. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:54NDJadarian Price 49 Yd Run (Marcello Diomede Kick)7–28
- Q3 5:49NDMalachi Fields 6 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Marcello Diomede Kick)7–21
- Q2 0:48NDJeremiyah Love 4 Yd Run (Will Pauling Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)7–14
- Q2 4:03BOISMaddux Madsen 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)7–6
- Q1 4:47NDWill Pauling 19 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Erik Schmidt PAT blocked)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 2195, BOIS Elo 1653 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ND -24.1 (93% to win) — 2.6 points clear of ND's market line of -21.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BOIS | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#55) | CORE overall | +38.3 (#2) |
| -1 / -7 | offense / defense | +20 / -18 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 3.84 |
| 1.98 | allowed / drive | 1.28 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →