Notre Dame StadiumClosing line: ND -21.5 · BOIS covered
Sat, Oct 4, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOIS | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| ND | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ND Elo 2195, BOIS Elo 1653) plus home-field advantage. That projects ND -24.1 (96% to win) — 2.6 points of value on ND versus the market line of -21.5.
ND up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Boise State 7, Notre Dame 28.
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ND pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jadarian Price run for 49 yds for a TD (Marcello Diomede KICK)
Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the BOIS 2
Maddux Madsen pass intercepted Tae Johnson return for 27 yds to the ND 4 Notre Dame Penalty, Illegal Block (Cam Williams) to the ND 35
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