#6Chris Marshall

WR·Boise State·2025

Chris Marshall is a Vertical Threat WR for Boise State. Chris's 2025 season produced 20.1 total EPA across 45 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chris Marshall's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

30 Receptions574 Rec yards2 Rec TD19.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume23
Explosiveness81
Consistency68
Pass-Down46

Player type

Vertical Threat WR

Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.

Downfield threatYAC upsideCreates space for teammates

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 1.93 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs UNLV (SP+ 4).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Dane Kinamon	Air Force	2021	39	0.410	0.7	16.0
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Micah Davis	Air Force	2021	44	0.370	0.6	16.3
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2021	41	0.370	0.6	15.2
JoJo Natson	Utah State	2014	51	0.390	1.0	19.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@South Florida	L7-34	11.6	2	19	9.5	1	13	0.44
2	vsEastern Washington	W51-14	—	4	132	33.0	0	46	1.65
4	@Air Force	W49-37	-3.2	1	13	13.0	0	13	0.52
5	vsApp State	W47-14	-11.4	3	52	17.3	0	26	-0.02
6	@Notre Dame	L7-28	24.4	4	58	14.5	0	28	0.33
7	vsNew Mexico	W41-25	0.9	5	70	14.0	0	23	0.48
8	vsUNLV	W56-31	4.3	3	96	32.0	1	45	1.93
9	@Nevada	W24-3	-13.4	2	27	13.5	0	16	0.09
15	vsUNLV	W38-21	4.3	1	10	10.0	0	10	0.15
20	vsWashington	L10-38	18.4	5	97	19.4	0	28	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

7.9%

Passing plays

16.3%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

4.9%

Passing downs

13.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.46
Passing downs: 0.44
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).