Arkansas State vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsUSA
- Q4 0:03ARSTClune Van Andel 38 Yd Field Goal 15–14
- Q4 7:51ARSTHunter Summers 6 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–14
- Q4 10:43ARSTClune Van Andel 37 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q3 1:34USAPJ Martin 27 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)3–14
- Q2 12:02ARSTClune Van Andel 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 2:50USAKentrel Bullock 9 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 6.6
- PassJaylen Raynor 29/45, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJaylen Raynor 14 CAR, 76 YDS
- RecChauncy Cobb 6 REC, 68 YDS
- PassBishop Davenport 18/23, 118 YDS
- RushKentrel Bullock 16 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDevin Voisin 4 REC, 43 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSA up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:51ARST +28%
Hunter Summers 6 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- Q4 0:03ARST +23%
Clune Van Andel 38 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 7:51ARST +22%
South Alabama Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the ARST 49
- Q4 1:50ARST +19%
Hamilton DiBoyan 29 yd FG MISSED
- Q4 7:51USA +19%
PJ Martin run for 6 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST down
- Q4 2:00ARST +18%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Jeremy Scott South Alabama Penalty, off-side (Simeon Mitchell) to the ARST 34
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. South Alabama?
Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARST | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 367 | Total yards | 278 |
| 209 | Passing yards | 118 |
| 158 | Rushing yards | 160 |
| 21 | First downs | 16 |
| 4-17 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 29/45 | Comp/Att | 18/23 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-91 | Penalties | 13-115 |
| 29:56 | Possession | 30:04 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:36 ARST punt on 4th & 1 at USA 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:03ARSTClune Van Andel 38 Yd Field Goal 15–14
- Q4 7:51ARSTHunter Summers 6 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–14
- Q4 10:43ARSTClune Van Andel 37 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q3 1:34USAPJ Martin 27 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)3–14
- Q2 12:02ARSTClune Van Andel 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 2:50USAKentrel Bullock 9 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1421, ARST Elo 1224 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA -10.3 (76% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#103 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #52 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Arkansas State leads 8–6 · Arkansas State has won 2 straight · 57% have been one-possession games
| ARST | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.8 (#118) | CORE overall | -14.2 (#104) |
| -11 / +6 | offense / defense | -4 / +11 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 2.86 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →