Tue, Oct 14, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| USA | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USA Elo 1421, ARST Elo 1224) plus home-field advantage. That projects USA -10.3 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
USA up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 14.
No — the model picked USA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had USA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Keenan Phillips run for 39 yds to the ARST 10 for a 1ST down
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 24 yds to the ARST 47 Arkansas State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (AG McGhee) to the ARST 32
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Jeremy Scott South Alabama Penalty, off-side (Simeon Mitchell) to the ARST 34
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →