Hancock Whitney StadiumConference gameClosing line: USA -8.5 · ARST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| USA | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
Team stats
ARSTthis game · better side highlightedUSA
367
Total yards
293209
Passing yards
118158
Rushing yards
17521
First downs
154-17 · 24%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USA 1421
ARST 1224
Projected spread
USA -10.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
USA
78% to win
Market spread
USA -8.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
78%
USA · market 72%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USA Elo 1421, ARST Elo 1224) plus home-field advantage. That projects USA -10.3 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USA (top)ARST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USA 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- ARST rush offense (-0.01 PPA) vs. USA rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge USA.
- ARST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. USA pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge USA.
- USA pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. ARST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ARST.
Drive-by-drive
ARST 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →USA 2/11 scoring drives
ARSTPUNT6 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q1
USAPUNT5 pl, 5 yds· own 13Q1
ARSTPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 35Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USA up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
USA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. South Alabama?
Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had USA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.