Air Force vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AFTeam statsUSU
- Q4 1:20USUJaven Jacobs 52 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)30–49
- Q4 1:34AFLiam Szarka 11 Yd Run ( Run for Two-Point Conversion)30–42
- Q4 3:58USUBryson Barnes 7 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)24–42
- Q4 12:30AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Cade Harris Run for Two-Point Conversion)24–35
- Q3 0:25USUBraden Pegan 38 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)16–35
- Q3 2:21AFOwen Allen 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)16–28
- Q3 9:19USUBryson Barnes 11 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)10–28
- Q3 12:36USUAnthony Garcia 17 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)10–21
- Q2 9:04AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)10–14
- Q2 13:02USUBraden Pegan 54 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)3–14
- Q2 14:46AFJacob Medina 31 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:04USUBryson Barnes 7 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJosh Johnson 5/9, 112 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCade Harris 8 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecCade Harris 2 REC, 63 YDS
- PassBryson Barnes 17/22, 287 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJaven Jacobs 9 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBraden Pegan 7 REC, 147 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:37USU +18%
Utah State Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the AF 38
- Q4 10:44AF +17%
Landon Rehkow punt for 50 yds
- Q4 3:58USU +14%
Bryson Barnes 7 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)
- Q1 15:00AF +13%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the AF 27
- Q4 10:38AF +13%
Josh Johnson pass incomplete to Quin Smith, broken up by Brevin Hamblin
- Q3 9:19USU +9%
Bryson Barnes 11 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. Utah State?
Air Force 30, Utah State 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USU) was correct.
| AF | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 445 | Total yards | 473 |
| 179 | Passing yards | 287 |
| 266 | Rushing yards | 186 |
| 23 | First downs | 22 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 5-5 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 11/23 | Comp/Att | 17/22 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 13.0 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 5-28 |
| 38:11 | Possession | 21:49 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:15 AF go for it on 4th & 12 at AF 23. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:20USUJaven Jacobs 52 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)30–49
- Q4 1:34AFLiam Szarka 11 Yd Run ( Run for Two-Point Conversion)30–42
- Q4 3:58USUBryson Barnes 7 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)24–42
- Q4 12:30AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Cade Harris Run for Two-Point Conversion)24–35
- Q3 0:25USUBraden Pegan 38 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)16–35
- Q3 2:21AFOwen Allen 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)16–28
- Q3 9:19USUBryson Barnes 11 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)10–28
- Q3 12:36USUAnthony Garcia 17 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)10–21
- Q2 9:04AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)10–14
- Q2 13:02USUBraden Pegan 54 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Rinker Kick)3–14
- Q2 14:46AFJacob Medina 31 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:04USUBryson Barnes 7 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1394, AF Elo 1438 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU -0.6 (53% to win) — 4.6 points clear of USU's market line of +4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#45 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #85 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Air Force leads 7–6 · 38% have been one-possession games
| AF | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.3 (#119) | CORE overall | -4.1 (#77) |
| +6 / +24 | offense / defense | -1 / +3 |
| 3.13 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 3.57 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 13% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -27 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →