Colorado vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
COLOTeam statsARIZ
- Q4 4:42COLOAlejandro Mata 34 Yd Field Goal 34–7
- Q3 5:58COLOAlejandro Mata 28 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q2 1:07COLOShedeur Sanders 6 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)28–7
- Q2 13:03COLOWill Sheppard 16 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:17ARIZChris Hunter 1 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:16COLODrelon Miller 1 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:37COLOIsaiah Augustave 1 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARIZ played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and COLO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 4.9
- ARIZ lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 34% success rate
- PassShedeur Sanders 23/33, 250 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushIsaiah Augustave 14 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLaJohntay Wester 8 REC, 127 YDS
- PassNoah Fifita 16/26, 138 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushQuali Conley 11 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecTetairoa McMillan 5 REC, 38 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCOLO up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 552 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:16COLO +20%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q2 13:03COLO +19%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 16 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q1 1:17ARIZ +18%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
- Q1 12:37COLO +17%
Isaiah Augustave run for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q2 1:07COLO +12%
Shedeur Sanders run for 6 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado vs. Arizona?
Colorado 34, Arizona 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARIZ, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| COLO | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 398 | Total yards | 245 |
| 250 | Passing yards | 138 |
| 148 | Rushing yards | 107 |
| 21 | First downs | 16 |
| 9-18 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/34 | Comp/Att | 16/26 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-70 | Penalties | 9-91 |
| 30:34 | Possession | 29:26 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:35 COLO go for it on 4th & 10 at ARIZ 30. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:42COLOAlejandro Mata 34 Yd Field Goal 34–7
- Q3 5:58COLOAlejandro Mata 28 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q2 1:07COLOShedeur Sanders 6 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)28–7
- Q2 13:03COLOWill Sheppard 16 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:17ARIZChris Hunter 1 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Tyler Loop Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:16COLODrelon Miller 1 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:37COLOIsaiah Augustave 1 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1616, COLO Elo 1490 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ -7.4 (70% to win) — 4.9 points clear of ARIZ's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#28 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #98 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Colorado leads 17–11 · 32% have been one-possession games
| COLO | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.0 (#22) | CORE overall | -8.2 (#94) |
| +3 / -12 | offense / defense | -2 / +6 |
| 2.52 | points / drive | 1.94 |
| 1.64 | allowed / drive | 3.08 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +15 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →