Western Kentucky vs. Marshall: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsMRSH
- Q4 0:53WKUDavion Williams 45 Yd Interception Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)53–21
- Q4 1:12WKUBrayden Narveson 39 Yd Field Goal 46–21
- Q4 12:16WKUA.J. Brathwaite Jr. 43 Yd Kickoff Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)43–21
- Q4 12:23MRSHShadeed Ahmed 41 Yd pass from Luke Zban (Shane Ciucci Kick)36–21
- Q4 14:18WKUDalvin Smith 8 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Brayden Narveson Kick)36–14
- Q3 3:25WKUBrayden Narveson 53 Yd Field Goal 29–14
- Q3 7:28WKUDaewood Davis 50 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–14
- Q3 9:10WKUMalachi Corley 14 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Brayden Narveson Kick)20–14
- Q3 13:41WKUDaewood Davis 47 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Brayden Narveson Kick)13–14
- Q2 2:48WKUBrayden Narveson 46 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 8:05WKUBrayden Narveson 41 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q2 14:22MRSHDevin Miller 3 Yd pass from Grant Wells (Shane Ciucci Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:01MRSHGrant Wells 1 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBailey Zappe 25/48, 328 YDS, 4 TD
- RushNoah Whittington 14 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecDaewood Davis 3 REC, 105 YDS, 2 TD
- PassLuke Zban 16/25, 123 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRasheen Ali 24 CAR, 99 YDS
- RecCorey Gammage 7 REC, 44 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:10WKU +27%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 14 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
- Q3 13:41WKU +22%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 47 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
- Q1 7:01MRSH +17%
Grant Wells run for 1 yd for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)
- Q3 7:28WKU +16%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 50 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q2 14:22MRSH +15%
Grant Wells pass complete to Devin Miller for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)
- Q3 7:28WKU +8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Marshall?
Western Kentucky 53, Marshall 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WKU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 485 | Total yards | 325 |
| 328 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 157 | Rushing yards | 126 |
| 25 | First downs | 20 |
| 8-19 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 25/48 | Comp/Att | 26/39 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 30:34 | Possession | 29:26 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:30 MRSH go for it on 4th & 9 at MRSH 39. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:53WKUDavion Williams 45 Yd Interception Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)53–21
- Q4 1:12WKUBrayden Narveson 39 Yd Field Goal 46–21
- Q4 12:16WKUA.J. Brathwaite Jr. 43 Yd Kickoff Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)43–21
- Q4 12:23MRSHShadeed Ahmed 41 Yd pass from Luke Zban (Shane Ciucci Kick)36–21
- Q4 14:18WKUDalvin Smith 8 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Brayden Narveson Kick)36–14
- Q3 3:25WKUBrayden Narveson 53 Yd Field Goal 29–14
- Q3 7:28WKUDaewood Davis 50 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–14
- Q3 9:10WKUMalachi Corley 14 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Brayden Narveson Kick)20–14
- Q3 13:41WKUDaewood Davis 47 Yd pass from Bailey Zappe (Brayden Narveson Kick)13–14
- Q2 2:48WKUBrayden Narveson 46 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 8:05WKUBrayden Narveson 41 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q2 14:22MRSHDevin Miller 3 Yd pass from Grant Wells (Shane Ciucci Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:01MRSHGrant Wells 1 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1671, WKU Elo 1656 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -3 (59% to win) — 2.5 points clear of MRSH's market line of -0.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#18 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #109 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →The series is level at 4–4 · 50% have been one-possession games
| WKU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.0 (#38) | CORE overall | +5.2 (#53) |
| +14 / +4 | offense / defense | +2 / -3 |
| 3.45 | points / drive | 2.43 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 1.98 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +25 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →