Washington State vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WSUTeam statsASU
- Q4 0:28ASUAndre Johnson 11 Yd pass from Trenton Bourguet (Cristian Zendejas Kick)34–21
- Q4 4:54ASUDeaMonte Trayanum 1 Yd Run (Cristian Zendejas Kick)34–14
- Q4 6:50WSUDean Janikowski 32 Yd Field Goal 34–7
- Q4 14:54WSUDean Janikowski 40 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q2 0:23ASULV Bunkley-Shelton 12 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Cristian Zendejas Kick)28–7
- Q2 1:50WSUCalvin Jackson Jr. 45 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick)28–0
- Q2 5:09WSUDeon McIntosh 1 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:15WSUTravell Harris 28 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:44WSUJayden de Laura 1 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassJayden de Laura 17/27, 234 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDeon McIntosh 16 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCalvin Jackson 8 REC, 139 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJayden Daniels 23/35, 228 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushChip Trayanum 19 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRicky Pearsall 9 REC, 83 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWSU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:15WSU +21%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 28 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
- Q2 5:09WSU +20%
Deon McIntosh run for 1 yd for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
- Q1 9:44WSU +17%
Jayden de Laura run for 1 yd for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
- Q2 0:23ASU +7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 12 yds for a TD (Cristian Zendejas KICK)
- Q2 1:50WSU +7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 45 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
- Q3 4:24WSU +5%
Nick Haberer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by LV Bunkley-Shelton at the ArzSt 17
FAQ
What was the final score of Washington State vs. Arizona State?
Washington State 34, Arizona State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ASU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WSU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 400 | Total yards | 406 |
| 234 | Passing yards | 275 |
| 166 | Rushing yards | 131 |
| 19 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 17/27 | Comp/Att | 26/39 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 4-32 | Penalties | 6-35 |
| 33:06 | Possession | 26:54 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:19 ASU punt on 4th & 2 at ASU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:28ASUAndre Johnson 11 Yd pass from Trenton Bourguet (Cristian Zendejas Kick)34–21
- Q4 4:54ASUDeaMonte Trayanum 1 Yd Run (Cristian Zendejas Kick)34–14
- Q4 6:50WSUDean Janikowski 32 Yd Field Goal 34–7
- Q4 14:54WSUDean Janikowski 40 Yd Field Goal 31–7
- Q2 0:23ASULV Bunkley-Shelton 12 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Cristian Zendejas Kick)28–7
- Q2 1:50WSUCalvin Jackson Jr. 45 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick)28–0
- Q2 5:09WSUDeon McIntosh 1 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:15WSUTravell Harris 28 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Dean Janikowski Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:44WSUJayden de Laura 1 Yd Run (Dean Janikowski Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1715, WSU Elo 1483 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU -11.7 (79% to win) — 4.8 points clear of WSU's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#33 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #20 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Arizona State leads 29–16–2 · 36% have been one-possession games
| WSU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.2 (#77) | CORE overall | +14.8 (#18) |
| -3 / -1 | offense / defense | +8 / -7 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 2.60 |
| 1.99 | allowed / drive | 1.79 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →