Toledo vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOLTeam statsOHIO
- Q4 8:49OHIODorian Brown 1 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick)10–38
- Q4 13:49OHIOBrendan Cope 12 Yd pass from Nathan Rourke (Louie Zervos Kick)10–31
- Q3 5:35TOLJameson Vest 38 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 8:03OHIODorian Brown 62 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick)7–24
- Q3 10:29OHIONathan Rourke 8 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:11OHIOLouie Zervos 44 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 3:19TOLDiontae Johnson 34 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:15OHIOA.J. Ouellette 6 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TOL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassLogan Woodside 24/35, 263 YDS, 1 TD
- RushShakif Seymour 11 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecDiontae Johnson 9 REC, 144 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNathan Rourke 7/15, 139 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDorian Brown 17 CAR, 142 YDS, 2 TD
- RecPapi White 3 REC, 91 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOHIO up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:29OHIO +24%
Nathan Rourke run for 8 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
- Q2 3:19TOL +23%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 34 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
- Q1 2:15OHIO +20%
A.J. Ouellette run for 6 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
- Q3 8:03OHIO +18%
Dorian Brown run for 62 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
- Q2 0:11OHIO +11%
Louie Zervos 44 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 12:10OHIO +7%
Dorian Brown run for 11 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Ohio?
Toledo 10, Ohio 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TOL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TOL | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 316 | Total yards | 532 |
| 263 | Passing yards | 139 |
| 53 | Rushing yards | 393 |
| 14 | First downs | 23 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 8-13 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/35 | Comp/Att | 7/15 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-48 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 26:43 | Possession | 33:17 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:16 TOL punt on 4th & 2 at TOL 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:49OHIODorian Brown 1 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick)10–38
- Q4 13:49OHIOBrendan Cope 12 Yd pass from Nathan Rourke (Louie Zervos Kick)10–31
- Q3 5:35TOLJameson Vest 38 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q3 8:03OHIODorian Brown 62 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick)7–24
- Q3 10:29OHIONathan Rourke 8 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick)7–17
- Q2 0:11OHIOLouie Zervos 44 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 3:19TOLDiontae Johnson 34 Yd pass from Logan Woodside (Jameson Vest Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:15OHIOA.J. Ouellette 6 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1516, TOL Elo 1677 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OHIO +4 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#23 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #90 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Toledo leads 30–13–1 · 43% have been one-possession games
| TOL | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.2 (#53) | CORE overall | +7.6 (#41) |
| +8 / +4 | offense / defense | +6 / -2 |
| 2.79 | points / drive | 2.98 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -0 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →