Clemson vs. Syracuse: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CLEMTeam statsSYR
- Q4 9:41SYRCole Murphy 30 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q3 6:16CLEMTravis Etienne 52 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick)24–24
- Q3 7:12SYRSteve Ishmael 30 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Cole Murphy Kick)17–24
- Q3 8:27CLEMAlex Spence 30 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 3:49SYRCole Murphy 21 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 8:31CLEMTanner Muse 63 Yd Fumble Return (Alex Spence Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:13SYRErvin Philips 66 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Cole Murphy Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:37CLEMTavien Feaster 37 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:44SYRDontae Strickland 23 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Cole Murphy Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKelly Bryant 12/17, 116 YDS
- RushTravis Etienne Jr. 5 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHunter Renfrow 5 REC, 64 YDS
- PassEric Dungey 20/32, 278 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDontae Strickland 19 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecErvin Philips 4 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:09SYR +50%
Dontae Strickland run for 2 yds to the Clem 29
- Q4 5:30CLEM +32%
Dontae Strickland run for 2 yds to the Syrac 49
- Q3 7:12SYR +31%
Steve Ishmael 30 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Cole Murphy Kick)
- Q4 0:20SYR +30%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 35
- Q3 6:16CLEM +23%
Travis Etienne 52 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick)
- Q4 9:41SYR +23%
Cole Murphy 30 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Clemson vs. Syracuse?
Clemson 24, Syracuse 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CLEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CLEM | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 317 | Total yards | 440 |
| 204 | Passing yards | 278 |
| 113 | Rushing yards | 162 |
| 16 | First downs | 28 |
| 2-11 | 3rd down | 8-19 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 22/32 | Comp/Att | 20/33 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-119 | Penalties | 12-100 |
| 25:08 | Possession | 34:52 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:17 CLEM punt on 4th & 1 at CLEM 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:41SYRCole Murphy 30 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q3 6:16CLEMTravis Etienne 52 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick)24–24
- Q3 7:12SYRSteve Ishmael 30 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Cole Murphy Kick)17–24
- Q3 8:27CLEMAlex Spence 30 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q2 3:49SYRCole Murphy 21 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 8:31CLEMTanner Muse 63 Yd Fumble Return (Alex Spence Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:13SYRErvin Philips 66 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Cole Murphy Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:37CLEMTavien Feaster 37 Yd Run (Alex Spence Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:44SYRDontae Strickland 23 Yd pass from Eric Dungey (Cole Murphy Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SYR Elo 1410, CLEM Elo 2075 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SYR +24.2 (7% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#35 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #5 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #1 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →Clemson leads 10–3 · 31% have been one-possession games
| CLEM | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| +30.3 (#5) | CORE overall | -4.9 (#80) |
| +7 / -24 | offense / defense | +1 / +6 |
| 2.36 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 0.90 | allowed / drive | 2.51 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →