Arkansas vs. South Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARKTeam statsSC
- Q4 1:40ARKJonathan Nance 34 Yd pass from Cole Kelley (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–48
- Q4 3:33SCKeisean Nixon 45 Yd Interception Return (Alexander Woznick Kick)16–48
- Q4 8:36ARKDavid Williams 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–41
- Q4 12:47SCTy'Son Williams 3 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Parker White Kick)10–41
- Q3 4:23SCT.J. Brunson 73 Yd Fumble Return (Parker White Kick)10–34
- Q3 8:33SCSkai Moore 34 Yd Interception Return (Parker White Kick)10–27
- Q3 9:28SCParker White 29 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q2 0:04SCBryan Edwards 18 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Parker White Kick)10–17
- Q2 8:26ARKJordan Jones 5 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Connor Limpert Kick)10–10
- Q2 14:15SCHayden Hurst 62 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Parker White Kick)3–10
- Q1 6:31ARKConnor Limpert 48 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:46SCParker White 33 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARK lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassCole Kelley 8/13, 140 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDavid Williams 7 CAR, 32 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJonathan Nance 8 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJake Bentley 16/31, 199 YDS, 3 TD
- RushRico Dowdle 11 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecHayden Hurst 2 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSC up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:04SC +28%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 18 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
- Q2 8:26ARK +20%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)
- Q2 14:15SC +19%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 62 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
- Q3 8:33SC +10%
Austin Allen pass intercepted for a TD Skai Moore return for 34 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
- Q3 9:28SC +9%
Parker White 29 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 6:31ARK +8%
Connor Limpert 48 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas vs. South Carolina?
Arkansas 22, South Carolina 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SC) was correct.
| ARK | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 330 | Total yards | 358 |
| 224 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 106 | Rushing yards | 159 |
| 19 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 20/37 | Comp/Att | 16/31 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-25 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 30:25 | Possession | 29:35 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:26 ARK punt on 4th & 3 at ARK 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:40ARKJonathan Nance 34 Yd pass from Cole Kelley (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–48
- Q4 3:33SCKeisean Nixon 45 Yd Interception Return (Alexander Woznick Kick)16–48
- Q4 8:36ARKDavid Williams 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–41
- Q4 12:47SCTy'Son Williams 3 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Parker White Kick)10–41
- Q3 4:23SCT.J. Brunson 73 Yd Fumble Return (Parker White Kick)10–34
- Q3 8:33SCSkai Moore 34 Yd Interception Return (Parker White Kick)10–27
- Q3 9:28SCParker White 29 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q2 0:04SCBryan Edwards 18 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Parker White Kick)10–17
- Q2 8:26ARKJordan Jones 5 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Connor Limpert Kick)10–10
- Q2 14:15SCHayden Hurst 62 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Parker White Kick)3–10
- Q1 6:31ARKConnor Limpert 48 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:46SCParker White 33 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SC Elo 1496, ARK Elo 1547 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SC -0.4 (52% to win) — 3.4 points clear of SC's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#26 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #86 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Arkansas leads 14–10 · 25% have been one-possession games
| ARK | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.9 (#74) | CORE overall | +8.5 (#37) |
| +5 / +9 | offense / defense | +0 / -8 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 1.86 |
| 3.21 | allowed / drive | 1.81 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →