Ohio State vs. Clemson: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OSUTeam statsCLEM
- Q4 8:51CLEMWayne Gallman 7 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)0–31
- Q3 2:06CLEMDeshaun Watson 7 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)0–24
- Q2 2:21CLEMC.J. Fuller 30 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Greg Huegel Kick)0–17
- Q1 2:16CLEMDeshaun Watson 1 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:16CLEMGreg Huegel 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJ.T. Barrett 19/33, 127 YDS, 2 INT
- RushCurtis Samuel 6 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecCurtis Samuel 9 REC, 43 YDS
- PassDeshaun Watson 23/36, 259 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushWayne Gallman 18 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMike Williams 6 REC, 96 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCLEM up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:16CLEM +21%
Deshaun Watson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
- Q2 2:21CLEM +18%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to C.J. Fuller for 30 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
- Q1 9:16CLEM +7%
Greg Huegel 45 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 5:01CLEM +6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 11 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Clemson?
Ohio State 0, Clemson 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OSU | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 215 | Total yards | 470 |
| 127 | Passing yards | 265 |
| 88 | Rushing yards | 205 |
| 9 | First downs | 24 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/33 | Comp/Att | 24/37 |
| 3.8 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-72 | Penalties | 5-60 |
| 24:09 | Possession | 35:51 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:25 OSU go for it on 4th & 27 at OSU 33. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.47 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:51CLEMWayne Gallman 7 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)0–31
- Q3 2:06CLEMDeshaun Watson 7 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)0–24
- Q2 2:21CLEMC.J. Fuller 30 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Greg Huegel Kick)0–17
- Q1 2:16CLEMDeshaun Watson 1 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)0–10
- Q1 9:16CLEMGreg Huegel 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLEM Elo 2077, OSU Elo 2328 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects CLEM +10 (26% to win) — 8.0 points clear of OSU's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#22 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #98 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →| OSU | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +28.9 (#6) | CORE overall | +33.3 (#3) |
| +7 / -22 | offense / defense | +15 / -19 |
| 2.97 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 0.89 | allowed / drive | 1.34 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →