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Michigan State

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Big Ten · 26-7 · AdjEM +21.4, 13 of 364 nationally.

2025-26 seasonthrough ratings as of 2026-04-06most recent completed season — 2026-27 has no ratings yet

Adjusted ratingas of 2026-04-06

Every team →
AdjEM
+21.413 of 364
AdjO
117.033 of 364
AdjD
95.514 of 364
AdjT
69.2222 of 364

Michigan State went from -2.3 (#251) on 2025-11-10 to +21.4 (#13) on 2026-04-06, peaking at +23.0 (#6) on 2026-01-26.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2025-11-102026-04-06

Four factorsraw season rates · 34 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
53.7%77
TOV%
15.7%198
OREB%
138.7%59
FTA/FGA
36.0%154
Opp eFG%
48.5%50
Opp TOV%
13.7%305
DREB%
-419.0%358
Opp FTA/FGA
30.3%71

Games26-7

“Ours” is our projected margin for Michigan State, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentResultOurs
11-03vsColgateW 80-69—
11-08vsArkansasW 69-66—
11-13vsSan José StateW 79-60+12.4
11-18@KentuckyW 83-66-18.1
11-21vsDetroit MercyW 84-56+14.4
11-25@East CarolinaW 89-56+3.4
11-27@North CarolinaW 74-58-7.9
12-02vsIowaW 71-52+8.2
12-06vsDukeL 60-66-0.1
12-13@Penn StateW 76-72+0.8
12-16vsToledoW 92-69+17.9
12-20vsOaklandW 79-70+18.5
12-29vsCornellW 114-97+15.0
01-02@NebraskaL 56-58-5.8
01-05vsUSCW 80-51+10.3
01-08vsNorthwesternW 76-66+10.9
01-13vsIndianaW 81-60+5.8
01-17@WashingtonW 80-63+1.4
01-20@OregonW 68-52+7.8
01-24vsMarylandW 91-48+19.8
01-27@RutgersW 88-79+13.4
01-30vsMichiganL 71-83+0.6
02-04@MinnesotaL 73-76+7.0
02-07vsIllinoisW 85-82+2.8
02-13@WisconsinL 71-92+3.9
02-17vsUCLAW 82-59+9.2
02-22vsOhio StateW 66-60+9.9
02-26@PurdueW 76-74-5.6
03-01@IndianaW 77-64+0.8
03-05vsRutgersW 91-87+20.5
03-08vsMichigan State—+3.6
03-13vsUCLAL 84-88+8.0
03-19vsNorth Dakota StateW 92-67+14.5
03-27@UConnL 63-67-4.2

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 364 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.