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Duke

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

ACC · 34-3 · AdjEM +31.4, 1 of 364 nationally.

2025-26 seasonthrough ratings as of 2026-04-06most recent completed season — 2026-27 has no ratings yet

Adjusted ratingas of 2026-04-06

Every team →
AdjEM
+31.41 of 364
AdjO
122.63 of 364
AdjD
91.23 of 364
AdjT
67.6305 of 364

Duke went from +5.1 (#43) on 2025-11-10 to +31.4 (#1) on 2026-04-06, peaking at +33.7 (#1) on 2026-03-02.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2025-11-102026-04-06

Four factorsraw season rates · 37 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
56.5%15
TOV%
15.0%131
OREB%
104.1%143
FTA/FGA
38.0%102
Opp eFG%
46.5%15
Opp TOV%
16.1%134
DREB%
-13.7%249
Opp FTA/FGA
23.1%2

Games34-3

“Ours” is our projected margin for Duke, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentResultOurs
11-04vsTexasW 75-60—
11-08vsWestern CarolinaW 95-54—
11-11@ArmyW 114-59-11.4
11-14vsIndiana StateW 100-62+13.4
11-18vsKansasW 78-66+14.8
11-21vsNiagaraW 100-42+21.1
11-23vsHowardW 93-56+28.1
11-27@ArkansasW 80-71+1.5
12-02vsFloridaW 67-66+19.7
12-06@Michigan StateW 66-60+0.1
12-16vsLipscombW 97-73+20.6
12-20vsTexas TechL 81-82+15.3
12-31vsGeorgia TechW 85-79+24.4
01-03@Florida StateW 91-87+9.9
01-06@LouisvilleW 84-73-4.1
01-10vsSMUW 82-75+11.4
01-14@CaliforniaW 71-56+5.8
01-17@StanfordW 80-50+6.3
01-24vsWake ForestW 90-69+15.3
01-26vsLouisvilleW 83-52+7.7
01-31@Virginia TechW 72-58+8.1
02-03vsBoston CollegeW 67-49+23.4
02-07@North CarolinaL 68-71+4.8
02-10@PittsburghW 70-54+14.4
02-14vsClemsonW 67-54+11.9
02-16vsSyracuseW 101-64+18.6
02-21vsMichiganW 68-63+4.0
02-24@Notre DameW 100-56+14.4
02-28vsVirginiaW 77-51+10.8
03-02@NC StateW 93-64+5.2
03-07vsNorth CarolinaW 76-61+15.4
03-12vsFlorida StateW 80-79+21.7
03-13vsClemsonW 73-61+16.3
03-14vsVirginiaW 74-70+12.4
03-19vsSienaW 71-65+24.0
03-21vsTCU—+17.7
03-27vsSt. John'sW 80-75+11.4
03-29vsUConnL 72-73+9.3

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 364 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.