#11Tyson Thompson

WR·Rice·2025

Tyson Thompson is a Red Zone Weapon WR for Rice.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tyson Thompson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

8 Receptions105 Rec yards2 Rec TD13.1 Yards/rec

Returns

4 Kick returns83 KR yards0 KR TD7 Punt returns36 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume7
Explosiveness41
Consistency60
Pass-Down0

Player type

Red Zone Weapon WR

Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.

Red zone targetHigh TD rateSize/catch radius advantage

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency60th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.89 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 2.66 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs UAB (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2020	39	0.320	0.4	12.5
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2021	41	0.370	0.6	15.2
Micah Davis	Air Force	2021	44	0.370	0.6	16.3
Cade Harris	Air Force	2024	45	0.330	0.5	14.8
Nick Nash	San José State	2021	45	0.310	0.5	14.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Louisiana	W14-12	-10.1	1	4	4.0	0	4	0.13
2	vsHouston	L9-35	7.4	1	3	3.0	0	3	0.28
3	vsPrairie View A&M	W38-17	—	1	22	22.0	1	22	0.38
4	@Charlotte	W28-17	-26.7	1	37	37.0	0	37	1.78
5	@Navy	L13-21	6.2	—	—	—	—	—	-0.13
6	vsFlorida Atlantic	L21-27	-8.7	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	vsUConn	W37-34	5.1	1	6	6.0	0	6	0.09
10	vsMemphis	L14-38	7.6	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	vsUAB	W24-17	-15.8	3	33	11.0	1	23	2.66
20	vsTexas State	L10-41	2.3	—	—	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

2.5%

Passing plays

5.6%

Rushing plays

1.4%

Standard downs

2.3%

Passing downs

3.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.53
Passing downs: 0.10
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.80 / -0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).