#5Isaiah Bowser

RB·UCF·20222.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Isaiah Bowser is a Explosive Back for UCF. Isaiah's 2022 season ranks in the 23th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 216 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Isaiah Bowser's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Rushing

808 Rush yards16 Rush TD206 Carries3.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

14 Receptions185 Rec yards0 Rec TD13.2 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns27 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs RB peers

Efficiency23
Volume58
Explosiveness18
Consistency63
Receiving31

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)23th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency63th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.12 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.34 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Temple (SP+ -13).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouth Carolina State	W56-10	—	23	83	3.6	2	3	26	0	0.26
2	vsLouisville	L14-20	9.0	15	51	3.4	2	—	—	—	0.12
3	@Florida Atlantic	W40-14	-7.1	13	33	2.5	1	—	—	—	-0.21
4	vsGeorgia Tech	W27-10	-11.8	19	70	3.7	0	1	22	0	0.21
6	vsSMU	W41-19	4.7	15	62	4.1	3	—	—	—	0.46
7	vsTemple	W70-13	-12.9	5	25	5.0	1	2	58	0	1.34
8	@East Carolina	L13-34	1.1	11	63	5.7	1	2	15	0	0.26
9	vsCincinnati	W25-21	13.1	14	58	4.1	1	—	—	—	-0.06
10	@Memphis	W35-28	6.8	15	67	4.5	0	—	—	—	0.26
11	@Tulane	W38-31	12.4	19	54	2.8	2	1	9	0	0.12
12	vsNavy	L14-17	-7.2	10	64	6.4	0	2	15	0	0.23
13	@South Florida	W46-39	-17.0	16	54	3.4	0	1	12	0	0.04
14	@Tulane	L28-45	12.4	20	85	4.3	1	2	28	0	0.43
1	vsDuke	L13-30	5.0	11	39	3.5	2	—	—	—	0.56

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

20.3%

Passing plays

3.5%

Rushing plays

34.4%

Standard downs

25.3%

Passing downs

7.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.75
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.14 / 0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.