#5Dawan Scott

WR·Miami (OH)·20140.8 pts line value1st Round

Dawan Scott is a Red Zone Weapon WR for Miami (OH). Dawan's 2014 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 102 plays — a average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dawan Scott's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

384 Rush yards2 Rush TD74 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

18 Receptions169 Rec yards4 Rec TD9.4 Yards/rec

Returns

12 Kick returns276 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs WR peers

Efficiency57
Volume43
Explosiveness16
Consistency65
Pass-Down100

Player type

Red Zone Weapon WR

Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.

Red zone targetHigh TD rateSize/catch radius advantage

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average

Key findings

▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.17 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.84 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Buffalo (SP+ -8).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Malik Dunner	Ball State	2017	76	0.290	0.4	22.0
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2020	128	0.310	1.0	39.7
Chris Tyree	Notre Dame	2020	76	0.310	0.6	23.6
Jafar Armstrong	Notre Dame	2018	79	0.320	1.0	25.3
Jerrod Heard	Texas	2015	116	0.290	1.6	33.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsMarshall	L27-42	16.8	5	42	8.4	1	15	0.46
2	vsEastern Kentucky	L10-17	—	1	11	11.0	0	11	-0.07
3	@Michigan	L10-34	8.2	3	27	9.0	1	20	0.22
4	@Cincinnati	L24-31	6.9	1	21	21.0	0	21	0.36
5	@Buffalo	L27-35	-7.7	1	7	7.0	0	7	0.84
8	@Northern Illinois	L41-51	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	0.69
9	vsKent State	W10-3	-13.7	3	12	4.0	0	16	-0.17
10	vsWestern Michigan	L10-41	-0.8	3	36	12.0	1	19	0.36
12	@Central Michigan	L27-34	-5.2	—	—	—	—	—	0.28
14	vsOhio	L21-24	-11.7	1	13	13.0	1	13	-0.18

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.9%

Passing plays

7.0%

Rushing plays

26.7%

Standard downs

16.2%

Passing downs

12.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.10
Passing downs: 0.54
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 10 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.