#11Ayden Williams

WR·Mississippi State·2025

Ayden Williams is a Slot Specialist WR for Mississippi State. Ayden's 2025 season produced 6.3 total EPA across 36 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ayden Williams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

21 Receptions252 Rec yards0 Rec TD12.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency67
Volume12
Explosiveness33
Consistency9
Pass-Down0

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)67th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency9th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.99 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.48 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Arizona State (SP+ 4).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Amare Jones	Tulane	2019	58	0.230	0.8	13.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Long	EPA/play
1	@Southern Miss	W34-17	-7.1	2	17	8.5	10	0.18
2	vsArizona State	W24-20	3.9	1	12	12.0	12	2.48
3	vsAlcorn State	W63-0	—	1	13	13.0	13	0.57
4	vsNorthern Illinois	W38-10	-16.7	1	3	3.0	3	-0.26
5	vsTennessee	L34-41	15.0	1	49	49.0	49	1.78
6	@Texas A&M	L9-31	20.7	3	25	8.3	15	0.29
8	@Florida	L21-23	3.5	1	3	3.0	3	-0.42
9	vsTexas	L38-45	16.2	4	69	17.3	33	1.13
10	@Arkansas	W38-35	5.1	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.95
11	vsGeorgia	L21-41	24.1	1	7	7.0	7	-0.12
12	@Missouri	L27-49	14.4	1	12	12.0	12	-0.35
14	vsOle Miss	L19-38	24.0	2	13	6.5	7	-0.48
20	vsWake Forest	L29-43	5.7	2	30	15.0	21	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

4.1%

Passing plays

9.1%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

2.9%

Passing downs

6.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.40
Passing downs: -0.00
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.17 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).