NHL Power Ratings

Every club's chance of beating a league-average team on neutral ice — and what it's built from.

0 games per team on average — early-season ratings still lean on last season and shrink toward average. Sorted by win% vs an average team; # after a value is that component's league rank. 7-day is the change in win% (percentage points).

			Ability to win	Scoring chances					Goaltending
#	Team	Win% vs avg	Rating	5v5 xGF%	xGF/60	xGA/60	PP xGF/GP	PK xGA/GP	GSAx/60	Starter	7-day
1	Avalanche	59.3%	0.55#1	52.4%#1	2.65	2.41	0.72	0.69	+0.10#8	Mackenzie Blackwood	—
2	Lightning	55.8%	0.52#5	51.3%#4	2.54	2.42	0.73	0.70	+0.16#3	Andrei Vasilevskiy	—
3	Hurricanes	55.3%	0.54#2	51.6%#3	2.60	2.44	0.71	0.67	−0.10#30	Pyotr Kochetkov	—
4	Golden Knights	55.2%	0.51#9	51.6%#2	2.53	2.38	0.74	0.65	−0.05#23	Adin Hill	—
5	Stars	53.7%	0.53#4	50.4%#6	2.47	2.43	0.74	0.69	+0.11#7	Jake Oettinger	—
6	Senators	53.1%	0.52#7	51.1%#5	2.50	2.40	0.70	0.68	−0.07#25	Linus Ullmark	—
7	Sabres	52.3%	0.54#3	50.4%#10	2.54	2.49	0.70	0.72	−0.01#18	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	—
8	Mammoth	52.1%	0.50#15	50.9%#7	2.57	2.48	0.69	0.72	+0.03#14	Karel Vejmelka	—
9	Oilers	51.9%	0.50#12	50.4%#8	2.54	2.50	0.73	0.71	+0.04#11	Frederik Andersen	—
10	Capitals	51.9%	0.52#6	50.1%#17	2.54	2.53	0.70	0.73	+0.16#2	Logan Thompson	—
11	Kings	50.8%	0.49#21	50.4%#11	2.45	2.41	0.67	0.68	+0.03#12	Darcy Kuemper	—
12	Blue Jackets	50.7%	0.50#16	50.6%#13	2.53	2.47	0.67	0.72	+0.03#13	Cam Talbot	—
13	Flyers	50.6%	0.50#18	50.1%#12	2.41	2.41	0.70	0.68	+0.01#17	Dan Vladar	—
14	Wild	50.2%	0.51#10	50.1%#14	2.49	2.48	0.72	0.71	−0.09#29	Calvin Pickard	—
15	Penguins	50.1%	0.51#11	50.4%#9	2.54	2.50	0.70	0.68	−0.24#32	Arturs Silovs	—
16	Blues	49.9%	0.50#14	50.5%#16	2.49	2.44	0.64	0.69	−0.06#24	Jordan Binnington	—
17	Panthers	49.7%	0.49#19	49.9%#15	2.47	2.49	0.73	0.69	−0.05#21	Jacob Markstrom	—
18	Bruins	49.6%	0.50#13	49.4%#24	2.46	2.52	0.70	0.75	+0.20#1	Jeremy Swayman	—
19	Jets	49.4%	0.49#20	49.5%#21	2.44	2.48	0.68	0.68	+0.12#5	Connor Hellebuyck	—
20	Canadiens	49.4%	0.51#8	49.3%#25	2.48	2.55	0.71	0.75	+0.13#4	Samuel Montembeault	—
21	Red Wings	49.3%	0.50#17	49.4%#20	2.46	2.52	0.74	0.69	−0.03#19	John Gibson	—
22	Ducks	49.2%	0.49#24	50.1%#18	2.57	2.56	0.72	0.72	−0.05#22	Lukas Dostal	—
23	Devils	48.9%	0.49#25	49.7%#19	2.46	2.49	0.71	0.67	−0.03#20	Jake Allen	—
24	Rangers	48.6%	0.48#30	49.4%#22	2.42	2.48	0.71	0.72	+0.11#6	Igor Shesterkin	—
25	Islanders	48.1%	0.49#22	49.3%#26	2.47	2.54	0.69	0.71	+0.08#9	Ilya Sorokin	—
26	Predators	48.0%	0.49#23	49.3%#23	2.49	2.55	0.70	0.70	+0.02#15	Juuse Saros	—
27	Kraken	46.5%	0.48#29	49.1%#27	2.41	2.50	0.67	0.68	−0.07#26	Philipp Grubauer	—
28	Maple Leafs	45.9%	0.48#28	48.9%#29	2.45	2.57	0.67	0.73	+0.05#10	Sergei Bobrovsky	—
29	Flames	45.3%	0.48#26	48.7%#30	2.39	2.52	0.65	0.71	+0.02#16	Dustin Wolf	—
30	Sharks	44.8%	0.48#27	48.8%#28	2.42	2.53	0.68	0.72	−0.14#31	Alex Nedeljkovic	—
31	Blackhawks	42.4%	0.46#31	47.8%#32	2.38	2.61	0.66	0.68	−0.08#27	Spencer Knight	—
32	Canucks	41.9%	0.44#32	47.7%#31	2.39	2.61	0.70	0.69	−0.09#28	Kevin Lankinen	—

How the ratings workshow

Every unblocked shot in the NHL's play-by-play gets an expected-goals (xG) value from our own model — the chance a shot like it goes in, from where and how it was taken and the game situation. Summing xG says how many goals a team's chances were worth, which settles far faster than goals themselves.

The pregame model rates each club on three things:

Ability to win — what the team has actually done on the scoreboard, not just the chances it created.
Scoring chances — expected goals for and against: the 5-on-5 share, and the power play and penalty kill per 60 minutes.
Goaltending — goals saved above expected per 60 by the projected starter, shrunk toward average until he has a real sample.

Game by game it adds home ice and rest (back-to-backs cost a team). The power rating is the result with those two removed: each club's chance of beating a league-average team on neutral ice, with average goaltending in the other net. How much each component counts is fitted on past seasons, not chosen.

Built by Gridpex on the NHL's public play-by-play. xGF% = share of expected goals at 5-on-5 · xGF/60, xGA/60 = expected goals for / against per 60 minutes · GSAx/60 = goals saved above expected per 60.