Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes
TV CARNHL, HHN·Lenovo Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
44%Senators
to win
56%
Hurricanes
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors CAR.515vs.542win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors CAR.107vs.1625v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors OTT-.066vs-.096GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors CAR.609vs.8605v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors CARCAR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSenators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
Hurricanes
Pyotr Kochetkov-0.04 GSAx/6053% to start135 career GP
Brandon Bussi+0.05 GSAx/6028% to start43 career GP
Cayden Primeau-0.45 GSAx/6020% to start58 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: OTT Travis Green · CAR Rod Brind'Amour
Leaders
vs
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).