Red Wings at Islanders — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Red Wings at Islanders

Detroit Red Wings(41-31-10)

New York Islanders(43-34-5)

Tue, Apr 6, 7:30 PM EDTTV DSN, MSGSN2·UBS Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

49%

Red Wings

to win

51%

Islanders

Expected goals: 3.0–3.0
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DET
.496vs.488win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DET
-.060vs-.0695v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI
-.027vs.078GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors DET
.273vs-.0345v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors NYI
NYI at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Red Wings

John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/60
70% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/60
30% to start98 career GP

Islanders

Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/60
45% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/60
28% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/60
27% to start635 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: DET Todd McLellan · NYI Peter DeBoer

Leaders

vs

A. DeBrincat
85
Points
M. Schaefer
59
A. DeBrincat
41
Goals
B. Horvat
31
L. Raymond
51
Assists
M. Schaefer
36

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.9122nd
Goals for / game: 25th2.79; 3.1019th
Goals against / game: 5th2.88; 22.6%12th
Power play: 30th16.5%; 77.1%23rd
Penalty kill: 10th80.8%; 51.0%10th
Faceoffs: 5th52.6%

Season series

first meeting

Nov 21@
Mar 27@
Apr 6@this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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