Islanders at Red Wings — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Islanders at Red Wings

New York Islanders(43-34-5)

Detroit Red Wings(41-31-10)

Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ESTTV DSN, MSGSN2·Little Caesars Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

45%

Islanders

to win

55%

Red Wings

Expected goals: 2.9–3.1
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DET
.488vs.496win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DET
-.069vs-.0605v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI
.078vs-.027GSAx / 60
Home icefavors DET
DET at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Islanders

Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/60
45% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/60
28% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/60
27% to start635 career GP

Red Wings

John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/60
70% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/60
30% to start98 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · DET Todd McLellan

Leaders

vs

M. Schaefer
59
Points
A. DeBrincat
85
B. Horvat
31
Goals
A. DeBrincat
41
M. Schaefer
36
Assists
L. Raymond
51

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.7925th
Goals for / game: 22nd2.91; 2.885th
Goals against / game: 19th3.10; 16.5%30th
Power play: 12th22.6%; 80.8%10th
Penalty kill: 23rd77.1%; 52.6%5th
Faceoffs: 10th51.0%

Season series

first meeting

Nov 21@this game
Mar 27@
Apr 6@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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