Islanders at Penguins — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Islanders at Penguins

New York Islanders(43-34-5)

Pittsburgh Penguins(41-25-16)

Thu, Apr 1, 7:00 PM EDTTV SN-PIT, MSGSN·PPG Paints Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

44%

Islanders

to win

56%

Penguins

Expected goals: 2.8–3.2
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors PIT
.488vs.510win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PIT
-.069vs.0365v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI
.078vs-.237GSAx / 60
Home icefavors PIT
PIT at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Islanders

Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/60
45% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/60
28% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/60
27% to start635 career GP

Penguins

Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/60
91% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/60
9% to start5 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · PIT Dan Muse

Leaders

vs

M. Schaefer
59
Points
S. Crosby
74
B. Horvat
31
Goals
B. Rust
29
M. Schaefer
36
Assists
E. Karlsson
51

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.7925th
Goals for / game: 3rd3.54; 2.885th
Goals against / game: 24th3.15; 16.5%30th
Power play: 7th24.1%; 80.8%10th
Penalty kill: 6th81.4%; 52.6%5th
Faceoffs: 24th48.2%

Season series

first meeting

Jan 13@
Jan 26@
Mar 7@
Apr 1@this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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