New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins
TV SN-PIT, MSGSN2·PPG Paints Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
45%Islanders
to win
55%
Penguins
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors PIT.488vs.510win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PIT-.069vs.0365v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI.078vs-.237GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PIT-.034vs1.115v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors PITPIT at home
- Back-to-backfavors NYIPIT played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersIslanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
Penguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · PIT Dan Muse
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
B. Rust29 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).