Sharks at Oilers — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Sharks at Oilers

San Jose Sharks(39-35-8)

Edmonton Oilers(41-30-11)

Wed, Mar 31, 8:30 PM EDTTV NBCSCA, Prime·Rogers Place

Our win probability

and the three reasons

39%

Sharks

to win

61%

Oilers

Expected goals: 2.7–3.3
Goes to overtime: 21%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors EDM
.479vs.504win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors EDM
-.114vs.0405v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors EDM
-.137vs.037GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors EDM
.077vs.4755v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors EDM
EDM at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Sharks

Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/60
43% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/60
36% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/60
20% to start63 career GP

Oilers

Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/60
50% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/60
42% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/60
8% to start39 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · EDM Mike Babcock

Leaders

vs

M. Celebrini
115
Points
C. McDavid
138
M. Celebrini
45
Goals
C. McDavid
48
M. Celebrini
70
Assists
C. McDavid
90

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.0417th
Goals for / game: 6th3.44; 3.5430th
Goals against / game: 25th3.23; 21.2%16th
Power play: 1st30.6%; 76.4%26th
Penalty kill: 20th77.8%; 47.8%26th
Faceoffs: 6th52.6%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 10@
Jan 13@
Jan 23@
Mar 31@this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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