Oilers at Sharks — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Oilers at Sharks

Edmonton Oilers(41-30-11)

San Jose Sharks(39-35-8)

Sat, Jan 23, 10:00 PM ESTTV NBCSCA, SN·SAP Center at San Jose

Our win probability

and the three reasons

53%

Oilers

to win

47%

Sharks

Expected goals: 3.1–2.9
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors EDM
.504vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors EDM
.040vs-.1145v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors EDM
.037vs-.137GSAx / 60
Home icefavors SJS
SJS at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Oilers

Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/60
50% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/60
42% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/60
8% to start39 career GP

Sharks

Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/60
43% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/60
36% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/60
20% to start63 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: EDM Mike Babcock · SJS Ryan Warsofsky

Leaders

vs

C. McDavid
138
Points
M. Celebrini
115
C. McDavid
48
Goals
M. Celebrini
45
C. McDavid
90
Assists
M. Celebrini
70

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.446th
Goals for / game: 17th3.04; 3.2325th
Goals against / game: 30th3.54; 30.6%1st
Power play: 16th21.2%; 77.8%20th
Penalty kill: 26th76.4%; 52.6%6th
Faceoffs: 26th47.8%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 10@
Jan 13@
Jan 23@this game
Mar 31@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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