Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs
TV MNMT, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
59%Capitals
to win
41%
Maple Leafs
- Expected goals
- 3.3–2.7
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.516vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH.013vs-.1135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.165vs.052GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors TORTOR at home
- Back-to-backfavors WSHTOR played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCapitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · TOR Jim Hiller
Leaders
vs
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).