Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals
TV MNMT, SN+·Capital One Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
40%Maple Leafs
to win
60%
Capitals
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.479vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH-.113vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.052vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors WSH-.105vs.3555v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors WSHWSH at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Capitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · WSH Spencer Carbery
Leaders
vs
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).