Oilers at Wild — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Oilers at Wild

Edmonton Oilers(41-30-11)

Minnesota Wild(46-24-12)

Thu, Mar 25, 9:00 PM EDTTV ESPN, SNW·Grand Casino Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

48%

Oilers

to win

52%

Wild

Expected goals: 2.9–3.1
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MIN
.504vs.511win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors EDM
.040vs.0105v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors EDM
.037vs-.090GSAx / 60
Home icefavors MIN
MIN at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Oilers

Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/60
50% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/60
42% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/60
8% to start39 career GP

Wild

Calvin Pickard-0.21 GSAx/60
60% to start204 career GP
Jesper Wallstedt+0.10 GSAx/60
40% to start50 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: EDM Mike Babcock · MIN John Hynes

Leaders

vs

C. McDavid
138
Points
K. Kaprizov
89
C. McDavid
48
Goals
K. Kaprizov
45
C. McDavid
90
Assists
Q. Hughes
69

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.446th
Goals for / game: 10th3.27; 3.2325th
Goals against / game: 4th2.87; 30.6%1st
Power play: 3rd25.2%; 77.8%20th
Penalty kill: 16th79.8%; 52.6%6th
Faceoffs: 30th46.6%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 20@
Dec 8@
Mar 25@this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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