Stars at Oilers — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Stars at Oilers

Dallas Stars(50-20-12)

Edmonton Oilers(41-30-11)

Sat, Mar 20, 3:30 PM EDTTV Prime Video, SNW·Rogers Place

Our win probability

and the three reasons

48%

Stars

to win

52%

Oilers

Expected goals: 2.9–3.1
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL
.527vs.504win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL
.038vs.0405v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL
.109vs.037GSAx / 60
Home icefavors EDM
EDM at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Stars

Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/60
65% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/60
35% to start225 career GP

Oilers

Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/60
50% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/60
42% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/60
8% to start39 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · EDM Mike Babcock

Leaders

vs

J. Robertson
96
Points
C. McDavid
138
J. Robertson
45
Goals
C. McDavid
48
M. Rantanen
55
Assists
C. McDavid
90

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.339th
Goals for / game: 6th3.44; 2.712nd
Goals against / game: 25th3.23; 28.6%2nd
Power play: 1st30.6%; 80.3%13th
Penalty kill: 20th77.8%; 51.6%7th
Faceoffs: 6th52.6%

Season series

first meeting

Dec 17@
Feb 27@
Mar 20@this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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