Oilers at Stars — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Oilers at Stars

Edmonton Oilers(41-30-11)

Dallas Stars(50-20-12)

Sat, Feb 27, 3:00 PM ESTTV Prime Video, SNW·American Airlines Center

Our win probability

and the three reasons

45%

Oilers

to win

55%

Stars

Expected goals: 2.9–3.1
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL
.504vs.527win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL
.040vs.0385v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL
.037vs.109GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors EDM
.475vs.3905v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors DAL
DAL at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Oilers

Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/60
50% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/60
42% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/60
8% to start39 career GP

Stars

Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/60
65% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/60
35% to start225 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: EDM Mike Babcock · DAL Glen Gulutzan

Leaders

vs

C. McDavid
138
Points
J. Robertson
96
C. McDavid
48
Goals
J. Robertson
45
C. McDavid
90
Assists
M. Rantanen
55

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.446th
Goals for / game: 9th3.33; 3.2325th
Goals against / game: 2nd2.71; 30.6%1st
Power play: 2nd28.6%; 77.8%20th
Penalty kill: 13th80.3%; 52.6%6th
Faceoffs: 7th51.6%

Season series

first meeting

Dec 17@
Feb 27@this game
Mar 20@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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