Blues at Oilers — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Blues at Oilers

St. Louis Blues(37-33-12)

Edmonton Oilers(41-30-11)

Thu, Mar 18, 9:00 PM EDTTV STLNHL, BN+·Rogers Place

Our win probability

and the three reasons

43%

Blues

to win

57%

Oilers

Expected goals: 2.8–3.2
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signaleven
.503vs.504win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors EDM
.049vs.0405v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors EDM
-.058vs.037GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors EDM
.114vs.4755v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors EDM
EDM at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Blues

Jordan Binnington-0.15 GSAx/60
67% to start425 career GP
Joel Hofer+0.12 GSAx/60
33% to start115 career GP

Oilers

Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/60
50% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/60
42% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/60
8% to start39 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: STL Jim Montgomery · EDM Mike Babcock

Leaders

vs

R. Thomas
64
Points
C. McDavid
138
R. Thomas
25
Goals
C. McDavid
48
R. Thomas
39
Assists
C. McDavid
90

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.8024th
Goals for / game: 6th3.44; 3.1019th
Goals against / game: 25th3.23; 17.6%26th
Power play: 1st30.6%; 76.7%25th
Penalty kill: 20th77.8%; 49.4%19th
Faceoffs: 6th52.6%

Season series

first meeting

Nov 22@
Feb 12@
Mar 18@this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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