Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers
TV MSG, SN·Madison Square Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
38%Maple Leafs
to win
62%
Rangers
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.479vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors NYR-.113vs-.0575v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYR.052vs.112GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors NYRNYR at home
- Back-to-backfavors TORTOR played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Rangers
Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/6058% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/6041% to start350 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · NYR Mike Sullivan
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).